000
AGXX40 KNHC 210510
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
130 AM EDT THU JUN 21 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

NRN BRANCH OF THE WESTELIES BEGINNING TO TAKE OVER THE MID LEVEL 
SCENE TONIGHT WITH A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THEN IN EARLIER 
DAYS. STRONG NWLY FLOW SETTING UP OVER NRN CONUS PUSHING A 
SHORTWAVE OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. AXIS OF SHORTWAVE EXTENDS SW 
OVER FL TONIGHT. FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGE S OF 25N. ON THE SURFACE 
TONIGHT TRPL WAVE ALONG 41W ANOTHER NEAR 69W BOTH ILL DEFINED. A 
1021 MB HIGH WAS NEAR 28N67W WITH A 1013 MB LOW OVER N FL. 

LATER DAY 1 SHORTWAVE OFF MID ATLC COAST WEAKENS AS IT MOVES E 
TO 65W. MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER PLAINS WITH WEAK EMBEDDED 
SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL TX. SOME MID LEVEL TROUGHING EXTENDS BACK 
OVER FL. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1..FIRST DAY OF SUMMER..WEAK 
ATLC RIDGE ALONG 25N E OF 70W WITH 15 KT WINDS IN ATLC TRADES. 
CARIB WINDS REMAIN STRONG WITH LOW PRES OVER NW COLOMBIA. ATLC W 
OF 70W AND GULF MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS.

FOR DAY 2 STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER PLAINS EXTENDS WELL INTO 
CANADA AND DISLODGES NEW COLD SURGE WHICH HEADS SWD ALONG 75W. 
THIS WILL CARVE OUT MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER WRN ATLC LOWERING 
HEIGHTS N OF 26N W OF 55W. ON THE SURACE DAY 2 ATLC RIDGE 
REMAINS WEAK ALONG 24N WITH ATLC TRADES 15 TO 20 KT. CARIB WINDS 
REMAIN STRONG WITH LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE. 

OUTLOOK PERIOD...

FOR DAY 3 STRONG NWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER NE CONUS TRYING IT'S BEST 
TO PUSH THE COLD SURGE EWD..BUT SYSTEM WANTS TO CLOSE OFF NEAR 
40N60W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 3 ATLC RIDGE BEGINNING TO COME TO 
LIFE WITH 1027 MB CENTER OVER MID OCEAN NEAR 33N33W AND AXIS 
EXTENDING WSW TO 23N60W THEN WNW TO 28N90W. ATLC TRADES INCREASE 
SOME MAINLY E OF 50W WHILE CARIB WINDS REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME. 
LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE. 

FOR DAY 4 WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH SLIPS UNDER PLAINS RIDGE 
WEAKENING IT SOMEWHAT. STILL HAVE STRONG TROUGHING N OF 30N W OF 
50W AS NEW SURGE OF COLD AIR HEADS SE OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST. 
STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE SETS UP OVER ERN ATLC ALONG 40W. ON THE 
SURFACE DAY 4 MODERATE STRONG ATLC RIDGE E OF 60W WITH 20 KT 
ATLC TRADES. CARIB WINDS 20 TO 25 KT S OF 20N. WINDS PICK UP IN 
CENTRAL GULF WITH POSSIBLE TRPL WAVE ALONG 90W ACCORDING TO GFS. 

FOR DAY 5 MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER CENTRAL CONUS WEAKENS SOME AS 
SHORTWAVE EMERGES FROM CENTRAL ROCKIES. STRONG RIDGE CONTINUES 
OVER ERN ATLC WHILE INVERTED TROUGHS SET UP ALONG 46W AND OVER 
BAHAMAS. ON THE SURFACE DAY 5 ATLC RIDGE CONTINUES TO THRIVE 
UNDER STRONG RIDGE ALOFT OVER ERN ATLC BUT AXIS SHIFTS NWD TO 
31N AS IT HEADS WWD ACROSS SRN CONUS. WINDS INCREASE OVER GULF 
TO 20 KT THANKS TO RIDGE. CARIB WINDS REMAIN UNCHANGED WHILE 
ATLC TRADES STRENGTHEN BETWEEN 20N AND 30N E OF 50W.
 
WARNINGS...

ATLANTIC...NONE.

CARIBBEAN...NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...NONE.

FORECASTER RRG