000 AGXX40 KNHC 200630 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EDT WED JUN 20 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... RIDGE LIES E-W ALONG 27N WITH WEAK HIGH CENTER BECOMING EVIDENT NEAR 27N85W. ELY WINDS 10-15 KT S OF RIDGE AND IN SE RETURN FLOW NW WATERS...BUT SOME EVIDENCE OF SMALL AREA NE 15-20 KT ALONG W COAST OF YUCATAN PENINSULA IN SSMI DATA. SW WINDS OVER NE PORTION WILL GRADUALLY TURN NLY IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRES DEVELOPING NEAR SE GA COAST TONIGHT AND DRAGGING A TROUGH THROUGH E GULF WATERS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS EXPECTED ALONG TROUGH. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND GRADUALLY WASH OUT OVER THE SE WATERS FRI NIGHT AND SAT. WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT OVER THE GULF WED THROUGH SUN. SW N ATLC... A WEAK TROUGH FROM 27N55W TO 25N70W EXPECTED TO MOVE SE OF REA TONIGHT. HIGH PRES W OF TROUGH HAS SLY RETURN FLOW AT 10 KT OVER THE NW WATERS ALREADY AND FLOW EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10-15 KT TONIGHT AND 15-20 KT THU AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS NEAR SE GA COAST. LATEST MODEL RUNS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW...BUT ARE MORE CONSISTENT WITH A 1012 MB LOW DRIFTING E...OR ESE...INITIALLY ALONG 31N BEFORE LIFTING OUT TO NE LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. MODELS NOW SEEM TO STRENGTHEN ATLC RIDGE MORE WITH EACH RUN...AND SUGGEST RIDGE WILL BLOCK TROUGH SE ADVANCEMENT TO EXTREME NW BAHAMAS SUNRISE SAT THEN PUSH TROUGH BACK SLOWLY W AS RIDGE BUILDS W ACROSS CENTRAL FL SUN. N SEGMENT OF TROUGH...N OF 28N...CONTINUES E REACHING 31N58W SUN BEFORE STALLING. LOOKS LIKE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS MOST OF BAHAMAS EARLY IN THE WEEKEND BECOMING ELY 10-15 KT OVER SE BAHAMAS SAT AFTERNOON AND SPREADING N OVER NW BAHAMAS LATE SUN AS ELY INCREASE TO 15-20 KT S OF 22N. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... BRISK ELY TRADES CONTINUE OVER CARIBBEAN S OF 18N. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 64W IS ACCOMPANIED BY ONLY SHOWERS ATTM PER LIGHTNING DATA. ASSUMING ACCURATE PSN THIS WAVE MOVED W ABOUT 18 KT PAST 24 HOURS. THIS SPEED SHOULD DECREASE A LITTLE ESPECIALLY AS WAVE MOVES INTO GULF OF HONDURAS LATE SAT. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN TRADES EXCEPT THEY DIMINISH OVER SW WATERS THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC...NONE. CARIBBEAN...NONE. GULF OF MEXICO...NONE. FORECASTER NELSON