000 AGXX40 KNHC 181757 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 158 PM EDT MON JUNE 18 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... RIDGE OF HIGH PRESS DOMINATES THE GULF WITH INCREASING RETURN SE FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND NW GULF WITH 20 KT WINDS REPORTED AT SEVERAL BUOYS. LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL WIND REGIME UNTIL TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED WHEN WINDS RELAX OVER MOST OF THE GULF AND TURN NWLY OVER THE FAR NE GULF JUST S OF A SLOWLY SWD MOVING FRONT AND AREA OF LOW PRES OVER THE SE U.S. MORE MODELS COMING INTO ALIGNMENT IN MOVING A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES SWD IN THE N-CENTRAL GULF ON FRI WITH ONLY THE LESS RELIABLE NOGAPS/CMC AS OUTLIERS IN MERGING THE LOW INTO A LARGER FRONTAL SYSTEM ALONG THE E COAST WITH MORE EMPHASIS ON NW ATLC IMPACTS. THUS HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE RESPECTED ECMWF AND NEW GFS SOLUTIONS. THUS WILL FCST A WEAK LOW OVER THE NE GULF THU AND FRI WITH WEAK RIDGE RETURNING SAT. DESPITE THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW INTO THE GULF WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT OVER THE GULF. MAIN IMPACT OF THE LOWS PRESENCE WILL BE IN AN INCREASE IN TSTMS ACTIVITY OVER THE E GULF ZONES. SW N ATLC... WEAK SFC TROUGH FROM 31N59W SWWD TO A 1016 MB SFC LOW NEAR 28N65W MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESS WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT AND TUE WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS...10-15 KT OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRESS SLIDES EWD WED AND THU WITH SLY WINDS PICKING UP TO 15-20 KT FRI OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA IN A MODIFIED GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW PRES OVER THE NE GULF. ON SAT THE WEAK LOW OVER THE GULF LIFTS NEWD AND SKIRTS THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA AND MAINTAINING 15-20 KT SWLY WINDS. WINDS ELSEWHERE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT WITH SUBNORMAL TRADES EXPECTED. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... AN 0810 UTC JASON ALTIMETER AND 1140 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS WERE HELPFUL IN DEFINING WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE CARIBBEAN...THOUGH THE QUIKSCAT MISSED THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE...AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...20 KT WINDS COVERED A LARGE PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN S OF 18N BETWEEN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND 85W. TROPICAL WAVE SOMEWHAT RELOCATED ALONG 53W APPEARS TO HAVE LESS BEARING ON THE FORECAST PER THE LATEST GFS DEPICTION OF THIS FEATURE. WEAKER WAVE MOVES INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC TONIGHT AND TUE THEN INTO THE E CARIBBEAN TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AND INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FRI AND SAT. GFS NOW DEPICTING LESS OF A WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE WAVE AXIS AND WILL NOT HIT THE WIND SHIFT AS HARD IN THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC ZONES AS THE FEATURE MOVES THROUGH THOSE AREAS. TRADE WIND SPEEDS DECREASE SOMEWHAT OVER THE CARIBBEAN W OF THE WAVE AXIS THEN IS REINVIGORATED AS THE WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC...NONE. CARIBBEAN...NONE. GULF OF MEXICO...NONE. FORECASTER COBB