000
AGXX40 KNHC 171802
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUNE 17 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING WEAK SFC TROUGH EXTENDING 
FROM 27N86W SWWD TO THE N COAST OF YUCATAN MOVING NWWD 10-15 KT.
LITTLE CHANGE IN WIND NOTED ACROSS THE TROUGH. TROUGH IS 
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN THE FACE OF 
INCREASING RETURN SE FLOW OVER THE NW GULF WHICH REACHES 20 KT 
INTO TUE NIGHT. ON WED WINDS RELAX OVER THE ENTIRE GULF JUST S 
OF A SLOWLY SWD MOVING FRONT AND AREA OF LOW PRES. THE GFS/GEFS 
AND ECMWF MOVE A WEAK ARE OF LOW PRES SWD IN THE N-CENTRAL GULF 
BY FRI WHILE THE NOGAPS/UKMET/CMC ABSORB LOW INTO A LARGER 
FRONTAL SYSTEM ALONG THE E COAST WITH MORE EMPHASIS ON NW ATLC 
IMPACTS. FOR NOW WILL LEAN TWD THE RESPECTED ECMWF AND NEW GFS 
AND FCST A WEAK LOW OVER THE GULF THU AND FRI. DESPITE THE 
INTRODUCTION OF THE LOW WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN 
LIGHT OVER THE GULF.     

SW N ATLC...
WEAK SFC TROUGH FROM 31N67W SWWD TO A 1016 MB SFC LOW NEAR 
28N73W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 180-240 NM E OF 
THE TROUGH. LOW IS FCST TO MOVE NEWD OUT OF THE AREA WITHIN 24 
HOURS WITH THE ATTENDANT TROUGH WEAKENING/DISSIPATING AS WELL.  
HIGH PRESS BUILDS IN LATE MON AND TUE WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS
...10-15 KT OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRESS SLIDES EWD WED AND THU
WITH SLY WINDS PICKING UP TO 15-20 KT FRI OVER THE FAR NW 
PORTION OF THE AREA. AS STATED IN THE GULF DISCUSSION THE 
GFS/GEFS/ECMWF SOLUTION IS PREFERRED FOR SYSTEM OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO WITH LIMITED IMPACTS FOR THE SW N ATLC. IF HOWEVER THE
NOGAPS/UKMET/CMC SOLUTIONS VERIFY SW WINDS COULD INCREASE TO 
20-25 KT BY FRI OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA. 

CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC....
1026 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED 30 KT WINDS AT SWATH EDGE ALONG 
THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA. THESE WINDS APPEARED GOOD SINCE THERE 
WAS CONSISTENCY WITH WINDS FURTHER INTO THE SWATH. ELSEWHERE 20 
KT WINDS COVERED A LARGE PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN BETWEEN THE 
WINDWARD ISLANDS AND 85W. TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 45W 
APPEARS TO HAVE SOME BEARING ON THE FORECAST PER THE GFS 
DEPICTION OF THIS FEATURE. WAVE MOVES INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC 
MON NIGHT AND TUE THEN INTO THE E CARIBBEAN TUE NIGHT THROUGH 
THU AND INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FRI. GFS INDICATES A GOOD 
WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE WAVE AXIS AND WILL DENOTE SUCH IN THE 
CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC ZONES AS THE FEATURE MOVES 
THROUGH. TRADE WIND SPEEDS DECREASE SOMEWHAT OVER THE CARIBBEAN 
W OF THE WAVE AXIS THEN IS REINVIGORATED AS THE WAVE PASSES 
THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN. 

WARNINGS...

ATLANTIC...NONE.

CARIBBEAN...NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...NONE.

FORECASTER COBB