000 AGXX40 KNHC 170520 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM EDT SUN JUN 17 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. MID LEVEL PATTERN BECOMING PROGRESSIVE TONIGHT AS LARGE UPPER TROUGH OFF MID ATLC COAST OPENS UP AND TRIES TO MOVE E. FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER OUR REGION S OF 30N BULGING NWD ALONG 50W AHEAD OF TROUGH WILL IMPEDE IT'S PROGRESS. SHORTWAVE OVER SRN PLAINS CAUGHT UNDER STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL RIDGE AND MAKING LITTLE PROGRESS. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT TRPL WAVE ALONG 42W WITH DISORGANIZED CONVECTION MAINLY ALONG ITCZ. TROUGH OVER BAHAMAS WITH WEAK IMPULSES MOVING NE. ATLC RIDGE WITH 1022 MB CENTER NEAR 26N50W. STRONGEST WINDS AS USUAL OVER CENTRAL CARIB AT 25 KT. LATER DAY 1 UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO 67W WHILE OTHER FEATURES REMAIN STATIONARY. INVERTED MID LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 47W ON S SIDE OF MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER ATLC. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 LITTLE CHANGE TO ATLC RIDGE. GFS PICKING UP ON TRPL WAVE ALONG 43W. TROUGH FROM BAHAMAS NE WITH WINDS TO 20 KT ON SE SIDE. CARIB WINDS REMAIN GUSTY TO 25 KT WHILE GULF MOSTLY LIGHT. FOR DAY 2 WHILE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NE OVER MID ATLC ALONG 54W NEW SURGE OF COLD AIR MOVES IN BEHIND IT TO RE-INFORCE IT WHICH WILL LOWER HEIGHTS OVER MID ATLC. MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING ALONG 80W AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE IN THE NRN BRANCH MOVES E ACROSS NRN PLAINS. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 A WEAKENING TROUGH BETWEEN 31N62W TO 23N68W SEPARATES ATLC RIDGE 1022 MB NEAR 25N50W AND A CONTINENTAL HIGH 1021 MB OFF THE SE COAST. WINDS OVER WRN GULF INCREASE SOME TO 20 KT WHILE CARIB WINDS DECREASE SLIGHTLY. TRPL WAVE MOVES TO 55W. OUTLOOK PERIOD... FOR DAY 3 AS EXPECTED UPPER TROUGH ALONG 55W N OF AREA STRENGTHENS WITH NEW SURGE OF COLD AIR. STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS GREATLAKES WITH UPPER RIDGE PINCHED IN BETWEEN OVER NE US. FLAT RIDGE AT MID LEVELS ACROSS OUR REGION. SHORTWAVE OVER SRN PLAINS WEAKENS AND MOVES OVER SE US. ON THE SURFACE DAY 3 WEAKENING TROUGH OVER ATLC AS TWO HIGH CENTERS BEGIN TO MERGE. TRPL WAVE MOVES TO 60W WITH NO CLOSED ISOBARS BUT WINDS TO 25 KT. CARIB WINDS REMAIN 20 KT. FOR DAY 4 LARGE CLOSED UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES OVER MID ATLC BRUSHING BY NRN PORTION OF OUR REGION ALONG 50W. STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER GREATLAKES WEAKENS AS IT SQEEZES RIDGE ALONG 64W. WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER SE MOVES OFF SE COAST TO 75W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 4 TROUGH FINALLY DISSIPATES OVER ATLC WITH HIGH PRES MERGING ALOGN 26N AND EXTENDING WWD INTO GULF. TRPL WAVE MOVING NW NEAR PUERTO RICO. FOR DAY 5 STRONG WESTERLIES N OF 35N FINALLY MOVING EVERYTHING E AND AWAY FROM OUR REGION. MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER PLAINS WITH WEAK IMPULSES MOVING OVER RIDGE AND SE INTO OUR REGION. ON THE SURFACE DAY 5 ATLC RIDGE REMAINS WEAK WITH MULTIPLE CENTERS MAINLY E OF 70W. LARGE WEAK LOW PRES SETS UP OVER SE CONUS. TRPL WAVE MOVES TO 70W BUT APPEARS WEAKER. STRONGEST WINDS E OF 70W S OF 20N IN TRADES. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC...NONE. CARIBBEAN...NONE. GULF OF MEXICO...NONE. FORECASTER RRG