000
AGXX40 KNHC 160518
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
130 AM EDT SAT JUN 16 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

TWO MAIN UPPER FEATURES HI-LITE THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN TONIGHT. 
ONE IS THE OLD CLOSED LOW OFF THE ERN SEABOARD..THE OTHER A 
LARGE SPRAWLING RIDGE S OF 30N E OF 83W. A MINOR PLAYER NOW IS A 
SHORTWAVE OVER THE SRN PLAINS THAT WILL MOVE EWD LATER. ON THE 
SURFACE TONIGHT ONE TRPL WAVE WAS ALONG 35W ANOTHER NEAR 68W. A 
TROUGH OF LOW PRES EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIB ACROSS S FL THEN 
NE. 

LATER DAY 1 A SUBTLE CHANGE BEGINS WITH THE NRN BRANCH OF THE 
WESTERLIES BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE ERN CONUS. THIS WILL 
DISLODGE THE CUTOFF OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. ON THE SURFACE LATER 
DAY 1 A 1023 MB HIGH ANCHORS THE ATLC RIDGE NEAR 26N46W. THE 
TROUGH PERSISTS OVER S FL WITH WEAK RIPPLES OF LOW PRES MOVING 
NE. CARIB TRADES REMAIN 25 KT WHILE ATLC TRADES 15 TO 20 KT. 
GULF WINDS MOSTLY LIGHT.

FOR DAY 2 SAY GOODBY TO THE CUTOFF LOW AS IT OPENS UP ALONG 67W. 
THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE SRN PLAINS REMAINS STATIONARY FOR NOW AS 
A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ALONG 85W. THE MID LEVEL PORTION 
OF THE ATLC RIDGE BULGES NWD ALONG 47W IN RESPONSE TO THE 
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 A WEAK ATLC RIDGE 
1022 MB NEAR 25N50W TRIES TO WORK WWD TO 75W. WHATS LEFT OF A 
TROUGH MOVES NW OVER THE GULF WITH LIGHT WINDS. WEAK LOW PRES 
CENTERS EXIT OVER THE ATLC NEAR 30N68W WITH LIGHT WINDS. CARIB 
WINDS WEAKEN SOME BUT SPREAD WWD. ATLC TRADES MOSTLY 15 KT. GFS 
HAS WEAK TRPL WAVE ALONG 42W.  

OUTLOOK PERIOD...

FOR DAY 3 A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN SETS UP AS BLOCKING 
FEATURES OPEN UP AND HEAD EWD. THE OLD TROUGH IN THE WRN ATLC 
LIFTS NE WITH DECREASING AFFECT ON OUR REGION. THE SHORTWAVE 
OVER THE SRN PLAINS BEGINS TO LIFT NE AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE 
MOVES E OVER THE NRN PLAINS IN THE NRN BRANCH. MID LEVEL RIDGING 
BULGES NWD ALONG 40W AND 80W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 3 THE ATLC 
RIDGE FINALLY BECOMES THE MAJOR PLAYER WITH TWO CENTERS..ONE 
NEAR 30N72W 1023 MB AND THE OTHER NEAR 25N50W AT 1022 MB. SE 
WINDS INCREASE OVER THE GULF W OF 90W TO 20 KT. CARIB WINDS 
REMAIN 20 TO 25 KT WHILE ATLC TRADES INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO 15 TO 
20 KT. GFS MODEL PICKING UP ON TRPL WAVE ALONG 53W BUT HAVING 
TROUBLE WITH SPEED.

FOR DAY 4 STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER MID ATLC REFUSES TO GIVE UP AND 
IS FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF ONCE AGAIN BUT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE 
AFFECT ON OUR REGION. SHORTWAVE OVER SRN CONUS ALONG 90W WITH 
FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER REGION S OF 30N. ON THE SURFACE DAY 4 
ELONGATED RIDGE WITH SIMILAR CENTERS AS DAY 3. RIDGE EXTENDS 
INTO WRN GULF AND WINDS DECREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT. CARIB WINDS 
MOSTLY 15 TO 20 KT. GFS STILL LOCKED ON TO TRPL WAVE NOW ALONG 
58W WITH WINDS 25 TO 30 KT WHICH LOOK TOO HIGH. 

FOR DAY 5 NRN BRANCH OF WESTERLIES TAKE ON MORE OF A WNW 
DIRECTION OVER THE NRN CONUS KEEPING PRESSURE ON THE CUTOFF OVER 
THE N ATLC..BUT SYSTEM BLOCKED BY RIDGE ALONG 35W. OLD SHORTWAVE 
OVER SRN CONUS WEAKENS TO A MID LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE NRN GULF 
COAST. GFS HAS WEAK VORTICITY CENTER IN ERN CARIB ASSOCIATED 
WITH TRPL WAVE. ON THE SURFACE DAY 5 TRPL WAVE ALONG 65W IS 
FIRST GOOD SYSTEM GFS HAS STAYED WITH THIS SEASON. OTHERWISE 
ATLC RIDGE REMAINS WEAK BUT GENERALLY ELONGATED ALONG 26N INTO 
GULF. CARIB AND ATLC TRADES NEAR 20 KT WHILE N OF 20N WINDS 
MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE.

WARNINGS...
ATLANTIC...NONE.

CARIBBEAN...NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...NONE.

FORECASTER RRG