000 AGXX40 KNHC 151754 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT FRI JUN 15 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. UPPER LEVELS... A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE W ATLC WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH REACHING 24N. THIS TROUGH WILL LIFT NE AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD WWD. ANOTHER TROUGH IS OVER EAST TEXAS AND WILL NOT MOVE OVER THE AREA UNTIL MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A BROAD WEAK TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTH OF 25N. REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. SURFACE... TROUGHING CONTINUES OVER THE NW CARIB GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. CONVECTION IN THE AREA WILL CAUSE HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY AND SURFACE PRESSURES ARE RISING IN THE AREA. THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT W MOVING INTO THE SE GULF AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SAT. SOME OF THE COMPUTER MODELS DEVELOP A SFC LOW ALONG THIS TROUGH NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA SAT THEN MOVES NE OVER W ATLC. IF IT DOES MORE ORGANIZED HIGHER WINDS ARE POSSIBLE... PARTICULARLY OVER THE NW BAHAMAS/W ATLANTIC. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN ATLC RIDGE AND COLOMBIAN LOW IS PRODUCING STRONG ELY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT OVER CENTRAL CARIB. THEY WILL STRENGTHEN EAST OF 82W DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS ATLC RIDGE BUILDS W. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. WEAK TRPCL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIB MOVING W 15 KT WITH LITTLE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH IT. A NEW TRPCL WAVE OVER THE FAR ATLC WILL APPROACH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TUE INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS. WINDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ARE MOSTLY LIGHT NEAR 10 KNOTS THROUGH SUNDAY THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS WEST FROM THE ATLANTIC OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES TO THE TEXAS COAST TUESDAY ENTERING THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS WED WITH DECREASING WINDS ACROSS THE GULF. WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH 31N66W TO 28N78W WILL MOVE SE AND DISSIPATE SAT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE E OF TROUGH. WINDS ARE LIGHT BUT CONVECTION IN THE AREA WILL CAUSE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS. WEAK ATLC RIDGE ALONG 26N E OF 70W THIS AFTERNOON WILL BUILD W SAT THROUGH TUE WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING SLOWLY N TO 28N BY TUE. ATLANTIC WINDS EAST OF 70W ARE DUE TO THE FLOW AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF LARGE ATLANTIC RIDGE EAST OF THE AREA. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC...NONE. CARIBBEAN...NONE. GULF OF MEXICO...NONE. FORECASTER GR