000 AGXX40 KNHC 150506 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM EDT FRI JUN 15 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS OVER THE OH VALLEY DROPPING SWD TONIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE IS ROTATING ABOUT A PERSISTENT UPPER LOW OFF THE NE COAST WITH IT'S TROUGH SW OVER OUR REGION. A MID LEVEL RIDGE THAT ONCE OCCUPIED THE WRN GULF HAS ONLY AS WEAK AXIS NWD ALONG 94W WITH IT'S MAIN CENTER NOW OVER THE GREATLAKES. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE TRPL ATLC IS CENTERED NEAR 26N50W TONIGHT RIDGING WSW TO 20N73W. ON THE SURFACE TRPL WAVES REMAIN WEAK WITH ONE NEAR 30W AND ANOTHER NEAR 64W. TROUGHING CONTINUES OVER THE NW CARIB WHERE WEAK MID LEVEL VORTICITY CENTERS MOVING AROUND THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUE TO STIR UP CONVECTION. LATER DAY 1 THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE OH VALLEY PULLS UP STATIONARY OVER THE DELMARVA BUT KEEPS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH IN THE SAME ORIENTATION. A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE OVER THE SRN PLAINS IS MAKING LITTLE HEADWAY..STUCK IN WHATS LEFT OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 A 1023 MB HIGH CENTER WILL ANCHOR THE ATLC RIDGE NEAR 27N45W WITH MODERATE TRADES S OF 20N. CARIB WINDS REMAIN GUSTY 20 TO 25 KT E OF 78W WHILE ELSEWHERE WINDS ARE MOSTLY LIGHT. FOR DAY 2 THE UPPER LOW OFF THE DELMARVA BEGINS TO LIFT NWD WITH LESSENING INFLUENCE ON OUR REGION. LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 THE ATLC RIDGE REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME BUT WINDS OVER THE CARIB ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE SOME OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION WHERE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AGAINST THE COLOMBIAN LOW. STILL SOME TROUGHING CONTINUES OVER THE SE GULF BUT WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. OUTLOOK PERIOD... FOR DAY 3 WITH WEAKENING OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS..NRN BRANCH WESTERLIES BEGIN TO INFLENCE THE TROUGH OFF THE E COAST AND PUSH IT EWD. THE OLD SHORTWAVE OVER THE SRN PLAINS REMAINS STATIONARY WHILE THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE TRPL ATLC BEGINS TO BOW NWD ALONG 45W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 3 AN ELONGATED ATLC RIDGE ALONG 25N WORKES IT'S WAY WWD WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN TRADES OVER THE BAHAMAS. CARIB WINDS WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS. THE TROUGH OVER THE SE GULF DRIFTS NWD BUT REMAINS OVER THE ERN GULF. WINDS OVER THE GULF REMAIN 10 TO 15 KT. FOR DAY 4 THE UPPER TROUGH OFF THE E COAST OF THE US LIFTS ENE ALONG 55W WHILE MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE ERN CONUS ALONG 80W. A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS PICKS UP THE STATIONARY SHORTWAVE OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND LIFTS IT NE. FLAT MID LEVEL PATTERN OVER OUR REGION S OF 30N. ON THE SURFACE DAY 4 GFS PICKS UP ON A TRPL WAVE ALONG 50W WITH LOCAL INCREASE IN WINDS. OTHERWISE STRONGEST WINDS REMAIN OVER THE CARIB AT 20 TO 25 KT E OF 78W. THE TROUGH OVER THE GULF IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS THE ATLC RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD WWD ALONG 27N. FOR DAY 5 A RETURN TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL PATTERN AS THE WESTERLIES STRENGTHEN N OF 30N. THE OLD LOW CENTER OFF THE ERN SEABOARD REMAINS WELL DEFINED NEAR 38N52W BUT IS A LESSENING FACTOR IN OUR REGION. THE ERN CONUS MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES E TO ALONG 70W WHILE THE STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER THE NRN PLAINS MOVES E TO 88W WITH THE WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE SRN PLAINS HEADING E OVER THE SE CONUS. ON THE SURFACE DAY 5 THE TRPL WAVE MOVES TO 58W WITH WINDS TO 20 KT. MAIN FEATURE IS THE ATLC RIDGE ALONG 26N EXTENDING WWD INTO THE GULF WITH NORMAL LOOKING TRADES ALL AREAS. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC...NONE. CARIBBEAN...NONE. GULF OF MEXICO...NONE. FORECASTER RRG