000
AGXX40 KNHC 110457
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
130 AM EDT MON JUN 11 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

A STRONG CUTOFF LOW REMAINS A FACTOR IN OUR REGION TONIGHT EVEN 
THOUGH ITS WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR 40N62W. THE NRN BRANCH OF THE 
WESTERLIES DIVES SE AROUND A RIDGE OVER THE NW GULF AND AROUND 
THE SRN SIDE OF THE CUTOFF LOW. WEAK IMPULSES ARE MOVING THROUGH 
THIS FLOW INTO OUR AREA. OTHERWISE A MID LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE 
TRPL ATLC S OF 30N E 0F 55W. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT ONE TRPL 
WAVE WAS ALONG 45W ANOTHER NEAR 72W BOTH MOVING W 15 KT. A 1027 
MB HIGH ANCHORED THE ATLC RIDGE NEAR 33N43W. 

LATER DAY 1 MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER TRPL ATLC EXPANDS WWD ALONG 
20N. MID LEVEL RIDGE STATIONARY OVER NW GULF AND LITTLE CHANGE 
TO CUTOFF LOW N OF AREA. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 A 1026 MB 
ATLC RIDGE CENTER NEAR 31N42W EXTENDS W TO 70W. ELY TRADES TO 20 
KT S OF 22N E OF 60W AND OVER CARIB E OF 75W. REMAINDER OF AREA 
MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS UNDER WEAK GRADIENT. 

FOR DAY 2 LARGE MID LEVEL TROUGH CONFIGURATION SETS UP N OF AREA 
OVER N ATLC. MAIN FACTOR IS A MID LEVEL NLY FLOW DOWN THE E 
COAST WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NW 
GULF EXPANDS NWD INTO SRN CANADA AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL OVER 
THE ROCKIES. MID LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS WWD TO 80W ALONG 20N. ON 
THE SURFACE DAY 2 LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN OR WINDS. 
WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO ATLC WATERS TO 31N63W 25N70W WITH WINDS TO 
20 KT E OF FRONT. OTHERWISE W OF 70W WINDS LIGHT.

OUTLOOK PERIOD...

FOR DAY 3 LARGE TROUGH CONFIGURATION COVERS ENTIRE ATLC AND 
BEGINS TO WORK IT'S WAY S OVER THE SE COAST INTO OUR REGION 
PINCHING OFF RIDGE OVER THE NW GULF. MID LEVEL ATLC RIDGE 
CENTERED NEAR 23N47W MAINLY E OF 70W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 3 A 
1023 MB HIGH CENTER ANCHORES ATLC RIDGE NEAR 27N44W WITH RIDGE 
MAINLY E OF 70W. TRADES 15 TO 20 KT OVER ATLC S OF 22N WHILE 
CARIB WINDS 20 TO 25 KT S CENTRAL PORTION. W OF 70W N OF 20N 
MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS .

FOR DAY 4 MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SW OVER N FL WITH 
MODERATE MID LEVEL FLOW CONTINUING OVER ATLC N OF 25N. ATLC 
RIDGE HOLDING FIRM NEAR 24N52W EXTENDS W TO 75W ALONG 20N. ON 
THE SURFACE DAY 4 ATLC RIDGE REMAINS THE MAIN PLAYER WITH A 
SOMEWHAT WEAKER CENTER 1022 MB NEAR 26N43W AND RIDGE TO 70W. 
TRADES S OF 20N E OF 75W 15 TO 20 KT ELSEWHERE MOSTLY LIGHT.

FOR DAY 5 LARGE MID LEVEL TROUGH CONFIGURATION SHOWS SIGNS OF 
WEAKENING BUT OVERALL PATTERN UNCHANGED. MID LEVEL RIDGE 
STRUCTURE OVER SRN CANADA NRN U.S. WEAKENING AS STRONG NRN 
BRANCH SETS UP OVER NRN U.S.. ON THE SURFACE DAY 5 LITTLE CHANGE 
TO OVERALL PATTERN WITH 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 26N41W AND 
RIDGE TO 72W. GFS MODEL GETTING A LITTLE MORE SENSITIVE TO TRPL 
WAVES WITH CURVATURE OF ISOBARS AND IN WIND FIELD. ONE WAVE 
ALONG 88W MOVING WNW. 

WARNINGS...
ATLANTIC...NONE.

CARIBBEAN...NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...NONE.

FORECASTER RRG