000
AGXX40 KNHC 080515
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
130 AM EDT FRI JUN 8 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

NO FURTHER SRN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES FOR THE SUMMER SEASON AS 
HIGH PRES REPLACES THIS FEATURE DURING THE WARM SEASON. THE NRN 
BRANCH REMAINS ACTIVE AND OCCASIONALLY DECENDS INTO OUR REGION S 
OF 31N AS IT DOES TONIGHT E OF 65W. A STRONG SHORTWAVE NEAR 
40N60W IS CLOSING OFF TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SWD. THE 
NWLY FLOW ON THE W SIDE CONTINUES TO SEND WEAK VORTICITY 
IMPULSES INTO OUR REGION AND MAINTAIN THE TROUGH ALONG 45W S OF 
25N. A LARGE MID LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE GULF AND NW CARIB. AN 
EMBEDDED MID LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE WRN BAHAMAS AND IS 
WORKING IT'S WAY SLOWLY NW. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT A TRPL WAVE 
IS MOVING THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT BUT SHOWER 
ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED. A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE NRN 
AREA FROM 30N60W TO 25N65W WITH A 1020 MB HIGH FOLLOWING. WINDS 
AND SEAS ARE MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE. STRONGEST WINDS ARE OVER 
THE WRN GULF AT 20 KT AND OVER THE CENTRAL CARIB WITH SIMILAR 
VALUES. 

LATER DAY 1 THE CLOSED OFF LOW DRIFTS S TO 37N60W SORT OF 
BLOCKED BY A RIDGE OVER THE N CENTRAL ATLC WHICH IS IN TURN 
BLOCKED BY A LARGE STRONG TROUGH OVER THE NE ATLC. A STRONG 
SHORTWAVE IN THE NRN BRANCH WILL BE OVER THE GREATLAKES MOVING 
E. A LARGE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF WITH THE 
EMBEDDED TROUGH DRIFTING W OVER FL. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 
THE ATLC C0LD FRONT DIMINISHES WHILE HIGH PRES DOMINATES THE 
REGION W OF 60W. WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING SETS UP OVER THE WRN 
BAHAMAS UNDER THE MID LEVEL TROUGH. WRN GULF WINDS REMAIN 15 TO 
20 KT WHILE CENTRAL CARIB WINDS REMAIN IN THE 20 KT RANGE.

FOR DAY 2 SO MUCH FOR THE STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER THE 
GREATLAKES..IT TAKES OFF NEWD AND OUT OF THE PICTURE WANTING TO 
HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH THE STRONG CUTOFF LOW NEAR 37N60W. THE 
RIDGE OVER THE GULF RECEDES WWD TO THE NW GULF WHILE MID LEVEL 
TROUGHING SLIDES UNDER THE RIDGE TO THE SE GULF. ON THE SURFACE 
DAY 2 TROUGHING DRIFTS W OVER S FL SEPARATING THE ATLC RIDGE E 
OF 80W AND A WEAK BUBBLE OF HIGH PRES OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. 
GULF WINDS DECREASE. CARIB WINDS ALSO DECREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT.

OUTLOOK PERIOD...

FOR DAY 3 THE DEPARTED STRONG SHORTWAVE IN THE NRN BRANCH HAS 
LEFT A WEAKNESS OVER SE CANADA AND THE STRONG CUTOFF NEAR 37N60W 
THE PAST FEW DAYS BEGINS TO DRIFT NW INTO THIS WEAKNESS. THE NW 
GULF MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS STATIONARY WHILE THE TROUGH WEAKENS 
OVER THE SE GULF. ON THE SURFACE DAY 3 A WEAK TROUGH DRIFTS W 
OVER THE ERN GULF STILL SEPARATING THE ATLC RIDGE E OF 80W ALONG 
26N AND A BUBBLE OF HIGH PRES OVER THE NW GULF. SOME INDICATION 
OF A TRPL WAVE MOVING OVER THE WRN CARIB WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE. 

FOR DAY 4 MOVEMENT OF THE CUTOFF LOW NWD ALLOWS THE NRN BRANCH 
TO ONCE AGAIN PENETRATE SEWD OFF THE SE COAST. THIS ALLOWS WEAK 
IMPULSES TO ENTER OUR REGION. THE GULF RIDGE OPENS UP AND BUILDS 
NWD ALONG 95W TO CENTRAL CANADA. ON THE SURFACE DAY 4 SOME 
FURTHER INDICATION OF WEAK LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH A TRPL WAVE OVER 
THE WRN CARIB. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERS ATLC WATERS NEAR 
30N70W TO 28N75W WITH POSSIBLE WINDS TO 20 KT. ATLC RIDGE SHOWS 
SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING WITH A 1026 MB CENTER NEAR 31N41W BUT 
STAYING MOSTLY E OF 60W. ATLC TRADES STRENGTHEN S OF 20N TO 20 
KT. CARIB WINDS ALSO SIGNS OF INCREASING E OF 75W. GULF WINDS 
REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

FOR DAY 5 WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO CENTRAL 
CANADA..THE NRN BRANCH HAS BEEN DETURED WELL TO THE N AROUND THE 
RIDGE THUS E OF THE RIDGE AXIS A STRENGTHENING NLY FLOW MOVES 
SWD ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD WITH EMBEDDED IMPULSES. MID LEVEL 
RIDGES SET UP OVER OUR REGION E OF 60W AND OVER THE NW GULF. THE 
WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT ENTERED THE ERN GULF DRIFTS WSW TO 
THE SW GULF DAY 5. ON THE SURFACE DAY 5 THE ATLC COLD FRONT 
DRIFTS E TO 31N63W 27N70W WITH SOME INCREASE IN SLY WINDS AHEAD 
OF THE FRONT. THE ATLC RIDGE REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME BUT DRIFTS W 
TO NEAR 30N42W WITH MODERATE TRADES S OF 20N E OF 75W. STILL 
SOME ACTIVITY OVER THE WRN GULF ACCORDING TO THE GFS MODEL DAY 5 
WHICH WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. GULF WINDS REMAIN LIGHT.

WARNINGS...
ATLANTIC...NONE.

CARIBBEAN...NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...NONE.

FORECASTER RRG