000 AGXX40 KNHC 061821 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 PM EDT WED JUN 6 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... MID UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH HAS ENTERED NW GULF WITH VERY DRY SUBSIDING AIR MASS ALOFT DISTORTING RIDGE CREST FROM ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED AT 16N90W. DIFFLUENT FLOW CAUSED BY JET CORE 95 KT NOW OVER NW FLORIDA PANHANDLE ENHANCING SERIOUS CONVECTION OVER ERN GULF AND FLORIDA STRAITS. RIDGE CREST GIVE WAY TO INCOMING TROUGH BUT CENTER REMAINS OVER BELIZE WITH GOOD DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT PROMPTING CLUSTERS OF TSTMS AND BRINGING ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO ERN GULF TO INCREASE ITS THREAT. ALTHOUGH RAINFALL WOULD BE A WELCOME RESPITE TO THE SEVERE DROUGHT IN SOUTH FLORIDA. LAND PRES DROPS OVER TEXAS AND MEXICO WILL TIGHTEN GRADIENT WITH SURFACE RIDGE ALONG 26N IN GULF...STRENGTHENING S WINDS W OF 93W. ENSEMBLE SOLUTION SUGGEST REBUILDING OF RIDGE BY WEEKEND DIMINISHING WINDS. SW N ATLC... DISPLACED RIDGE CREST DOMINATES ENTIRE BASIN WITH VERY MOIST AIR MASS N OF 23N AND A VERY DRY ONE S OF 24N. SURFACE HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER CENTRAL ATLC BUILDS SW WITH LIGHT WINDS COVERING A GOOD PORTION OF BASIN W OF 70W. WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NE PORTION OF REGION THU AND FRI WITH NE WINDS PICKING UP BEHIND FRONT. SW WINDS INCREASE AGAIN AS ANOTHER FRONT SKIRTS NRN ALONG 31N SUN. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... UPPER LEVELS OF ENTIRE BASIN...EXCEPT EXTREME SW CORNER...ARE VERY DRY WITH LITTLE OR NO CONVECTION OBSERVED. TRPCL WAVE JUST ENTERED TROPICAL N ATLC AT 56W WITH ASSOCIATED HIGHER WINDS WITHIN 240 NM OF AXIS AND CONVECTION KEPT S OF 11N BY VERY DRY AIR MASS. SRN PERIPHERY OF ATLC RIDGE PROMPTS STRONG E-NE TRADES ALONG SRN HALF OF CARIBBEAN WITH SEA HEIGHTS COMING IN SHORT OF PREVIOUS NWW3 RUNS THAT INDICATED. EXPECT GRADIENT TO RELAX BY FRI AS WEAK ATLC COLD FRONT DENTS ATLC RIDGE AND BRING WINDS DOWN... AT LEAST THROUGH MON. WINDS TO DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY FRI THROUGH SUN AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER SW N ATLC. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC...NONE. CARIBBEAN...NONE. GULF OF MEXICO...NONE. FORECASTER WALLY BARNES