000
AGXX40 KNHC 060640
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
238 AM EDT WED JUN 6 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE GULF FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO THE TEXAS 
COAST NEAR 27N97W WITH LIGHT WINDS ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS AND MOST 
OF THE GULF. THE FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF PREVIOUS 
DISCUSSIONS WITH THE ONLY CHANGE IN THE SHORT TERM BEING AN 
INCREASE IN THE S/SE RETURN FLOW TONIGHT INTO FRI AS SFC 
PRESSURES FALL OVER TEXAS AND RIDGE IS DISPLACED TO THE E... 
THEREBY INCREASING THE GRADIENT. THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLES 
SUGGEST WINDS MAY PICK UP TO 20-25 KT THU AND THU NIGHT. THE 
OTHER GLOBAL MODELS ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH ONLY 20 KT. WILL 
LEAN TOWARD THE GFS GIVEN THE STRONG UNSEASONABLE SYNOPTIC
SCALE SYSTEM SLATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN 
PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE 
REGION WITH WINDS DECREASING SAT AND SUN.   

SW N ATLC...
LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED AN ENE-WSW RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING 
FROM 27N65W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WITH SWLY WINDS OF 20 KT
JUST CLIPPING THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA. ATLC RIDGE BUILDS 
WWD TODAY AND ALLOWS FOR THE 20 KT WINDS TO MOV N OF THE AREA. 
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND THU WITH 
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS COVERING A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA W 
OF 70W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES 
INTO THE NE PORTION OF THE AREA LATE THU AND FRI WITH NE WINDS 
PICKING UP TO 15 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND 
THE FRONT ALONG 31N SETTLES SWD TO ALONG 29N SAT AND 27N SUN.
HIGH PRESSURE RESULTS IN LIGHT ELY WINDS OF 10-15 KT MOST AREAS 
S OF THE RIDGE AXIS LATE FRI INTO SUN. SWLY WINDS MAY PICK UP TO 
20 KT AS ANOTHER SYSTEMS CLIPS THE FAR NRN PORTION OF THE AREA 
SUN.   

CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC...
THIS EVENINGS QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED THE ADVERTISED AREA OF 
20-25 KT WINDS HAVE MIGRATED WWD INTO THE W AND CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN WITH THE W CARIBBEAN BUOY 42057 REPORTING ELY WINDS OF 
20 KT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. A 00 UTC JASON ALTIMETER PASS 
OVER THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 70W SHOWED SEAS OF 9 FT ALONG THE N 
COAST OF VENEZUELA WITH THIS AREA OF ELY WINDS. AREA OF WINDS 
REMAINS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY FRI WITH WINDS OF
30 KT POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLOMBIAN COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND 
EVENING. ACCORDINGLY THE NWW3 BUILDS SEAS TO 12 FT IN THE AREA. 
WINDS BEGIN TO DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY FRI THROUGH SUN AS WEAK 
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE SW N ATLC. TRPCL WAVE 
CURRENTLY ALONG 54W/55W REFLECTED IN THE GFS MOVES INTO THE 
TROPICAL N ATLC TODAY WITH AN AREA OF 20 KT WINDS DEVELOPING.  
THE MODEL APPEARS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE WAVE AND 
CARRIES THE FEATURE INTO THE E-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FRI AND W 
CARIBBEAN SUN COINCIDENT WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE WINDS IN THE 
REGION.  

WARNINGS...
ATLANTIC...NONE.

CARIBBEAN...NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...NONE.

FORECASTER COBB