000
AGXX40 KNHC 041747
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
150 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH N OF AREA HAS EFFECTIVELY FLATTENED 
CREST OF MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED AT 18N78W.  THIS 
MAINTAINS QUASI-ZONAL W FLOW OVER ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO AND SW N 
ATLC W OF 70W.  WEAK LEFTOVERS FROM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LINGER 
ALOFT E OF 70W RACING NE OUT OF REGION BY TUE.  ZONAL WINDS SHOW 
LITTLE SIGNS OF CHANGE EXCEPT INTRODUCE SOME MOISTURE OVER GULF 
W OF 90W.  ANTICYCLONE HAS RIDGE EXTEND W INTO E PAC WITH WEAK 
DEFORMATION ZONE 87W.  THIS HAS APPARENTLY PRODUCED DIFFLUENT 
FLOW ABOVE PATH OF SURFACE TROPICAL WAVE WHICH HAS DEVELOPED 
CLUSTER OF TSTMS OVER YUCATAN PASSAGE.  CONVECTION TRAINS ALONG 
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 31N68W TO 23N82W.  

ELSEWHERE...CARIBBEAN MID/UPPER LEVEL WEAK RIDGE KEEPS STEADY 
DRY NE FLOW OVER BASIN WHICH CURTAILS ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION 
EXCEPT IN VICINITY OF TROPICAL WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE. 

ATLC...WITH BARRY OUT OF PICTURE GRADIENT HAS SUBSTANTIALLY 
WEAKENED WITH LIGHT WESTERLIES LINGERING ACROSS OVER AREA 
THROUGH FORECAST AND OUTLOOK PERIODS.  MODEL ENSEMBLE AGREES 
WITH HIGH PRES RIDGE REBUILDING W BRINGING LIGHT NE TRADES FROM 
THU THRU SAT. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...REBUILDING HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL TIGHTEN GRADIENT 
WITH LOW PRES BEHIND TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 85W INCREASING TRADES 
TO 20-25 KT AND BUILDING SEAS OVER 10 FT...MAINLY S OF 15N.  GFS 
BRINGS WIND DOWN BY FRI AS TROPICAL WAVE MOVES W RELAXING 
GRADIENT...BUT STILL REMAIN MODERATE IN STRENGTH.  SEAS SUBSIDE 
UNDER 8 FT.  

GULF OF MEXICO...HIGH PRES RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS ENTIRE GULF OF 
MEXICO UNDER ZONAL WINDS ABOVE.  BASIN REMAINS DRY WITH LIGHT 
WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS THRU FORECAST PERIODS EXCEPT W OF 92W 
WHERE MODERATE TO STRONG SE-S FLOW WILL BUILD SEAS TO NEAR 8 FT. 
ELSEWHERE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE FORECAST BY 
MODEL ENSEMBLE.     

WARNINGS...
ATLANTIC...NONE.

CARIBBEAN...NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...NONE.

FORECASTER WALLY BARNES