000
AGXX40 KNHC 040513
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
130 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

ONE SHORTWAVE EXITING NE ALONG THE MID ATLC WHILE ANOTHER ONE 
MOVES SE OVER THE MIDWEST..THE RESULT BEING A LARGE SCALE UPPER 
TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS. THIS TROUGH EXTENDS S TO 23N. FLAT 
MID LEVEL RIDGES W OF 60W AND E OF 40W WITH A PERSISTING 
WEAKNESS IN BETWEEN NEAR 50W. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT A 1025 MB 
HIGH WAS OVER THE MID ATLC NEAR 31N52W WITH MODERATE TRADES S OF 
16N. WEAK WAVES ALONG THE ITCZ WERE LOCATED NEAR 37W..57W AND 
77W. A TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS..THE LEADING 
EDGE OF DRIER AIR CIRCULATING EWD AROUND THE STRONG CYCLONIC 
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH OLD BARRY NOW OVER THE MID ATLC COAST. WEAK 
HIGH PRES OVER THE GULF STATIONARY.

LATER DAY 1 LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 80W. STRONG 
NWLY FLOW ALOFT DIVING SE OVER PLAINS WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE 
ALONG 97W. OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE OVER REGION. ON THE SURFACE 
DAY 1 ATLC RIDGING BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE WITH A 1025 MB CENTER 
OVER MID OCEAN AND A RIDGE WWD ALONG 23N INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. 
MODERATE TRADES S OF 17N. WINDS N OF 29N W OF 70W GRADUALLY 
DECREASING. 

FOR DAY 2 LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH STILL IN PLACE OVER ERN CONUS 
WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER WRN GULF. INVERTED MID LEVEL TROUGH 
ALONG 55W CAUGHT BETWEEN TWO FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGES. ON THE 
SURFACE DAY 2 BASICALLY HIGH PRES DOMINATES THE ENTIRE REGION. 
LITTLE CHANGE TO RIDGE AXIS WITH MODERATE TRADES CONFINED TO S 
OF 17N.

OUTLOOK PERIOD...   

FOR DAY 3 MID LEVEL CHANGES BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE AS THE LARGE 
SCALE TROUGH WEAKENS AND MOVES E TO 72W. MID LEVEL RIDGING 
BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING 
OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. MID LEVEL RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER 
CUBA/BAHAMA AREA. ON THE SURFACE DAY 3 ATLC RIDGE ALONG 25N INTO 
CENTRAL GULF WITH STRENGTHENING TRADES OVER CARIB TO 25 KT S OF 
17N. INCREASING SLY WINDS W OF 90W AS SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS 
OVER PLAINS. 

FOR DAY 4 PLAINS MID LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS E TO 80W AS STRONG 
SHORTWAVE LIFTS NE OVER NRN PLAINS. RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER GULF. 
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS BEGIN FALLING ALONG 60W AS A SHORTWAVE BUILDS 
SWD. ON THE SURFACE DAY 4 A WEAKNESS DEVELOPS ALONG 60W 
WEAKENING THE RIDGE A BIT THUS ATLC WINDS N OF 20N MOSTLY LIGHT. 
WRN GULF WINDS INCREASE TO 20 KT WITH LOWER PRES OVER SRN 
PLAINS. CARIB WINDS MOSTLY 20 KT WHILE ATLC TRADES MOSTLY LIGHT.

FOR DAY 5 STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER DEEP SOUTH 
BLOCKING ANY INFLUENCE FROM THE NRN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES. 
MID LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 60W CLOSES OFF NEAR 35N60W AND BEGINS TO 
AFFECT OUR REGION. ON THE SURFACE DAY 5 WEAK TROUGH ALONG 57W 
OVER ATLC WITH LIGHT WINDS. ATLC RIDGE E OF 50W WEAK WITH LIGHT 
TRADES CONTINUING. 1021 MB HIGH OFF SE COAST RIDGES BACK OVER 
NRN GULF WILL WEAKEN WINDS OVER WRN GULF DAY 5. CARIB WINDS ALSO 
DECREASE WITH HIGH PRES FURTHER N THAN ON PREVIOUS DAYS. 

WARNINGS...
ATLANTIC...NONE.

CARIBBEAN...NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...NONE.

FORECASTER RRG