000 AGXX40 KNHC 011749 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. UPPER LEVELS... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM SE LOUISIANA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH HANGS ON NEAR 50W WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH REACHING 22N. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM CUBA NORTHWARD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND THE W ATLC W OF 70W REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. THIS FEATURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EWD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SURFACE... MAIN CONCERN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE SE GULF. IT WAS SITUATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN YESTERDAY. THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE A WELL DEFINED CENTER BUT IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER WESTERN CUBA AND THE REGIONAL COASTAL WATERS...INCLUDING ALSO THE SE PORTION OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND WILL SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GULF...ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN THE ORGANIZATION COULD BRING THE SYSTEM TO TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS. A TROUGH EXTENDS SWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE EXTREME NW CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 16N87W. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS N-CENTRAL FL SAT THEN DEEPENING AND MOVING E OF CAROLINA COAST SUN. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE IN TANDEM WITH THE LOW. STRONGEST WINDS ARE OVER THE SE GULF...THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...BAHAMAS AND NW CARIB WITH 20 TO 30 KT. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING CONFIRMED THESE MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED SAT NIGHT AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO THE ATL...JUST E OF THE NE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AN OLD FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDED FROM 31N50W TO 23N60W. A BAND OF SHOWERS/SCATTERED TSTMS IS WITHIN 180-200 NM AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE TROUGH SEPARATES THE ATLC RIDGE TO THE E OF 55W AND A CONTINENTAL HIGH ALONG 65W. WEAK TRPCL WAVE IS ALONG 41W ON THE 12Z SFC MAP MOVING WWD. ELY TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE N TROPICAL ATL SUN AND ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN MON AND TUE. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER GR