000 AGXX40 KNHC 010515 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM EDT FRI JUN 1 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. IN THE MID LEVELS TONIGHT A DIGGING JET ON THE W SIDE OF THE TROF OVER THE GULF IS KEEPING IT FROM MOVING EWD. A STUBBORN RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE BAHAMAS NNW IS NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT. NRN BRANCH WESTERLIES DIVE SEWD OVER THE ATLC E OF 70W WITH A SHORTWAVE ALONG 55W. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT A WEAK LOW PRES CENTER IS OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL MOVING SLOWLY NNE. AN OLD FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDED FROM 31N52W TO 22N65W. THE TROUGH SEPARATES THE ATLC RIDGE TO THE E OF 55W AND A CONTINENTAL HIGH ALONG 65W. STRONGEST WINDS ARE OVER THE SE GULF AND BAHAMAS..NW CARIB WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT. ELY TRADES S OF 18N E OF 60W MOSTLY 20 KT. WEAK TRPCL WAVES WERE ALONG 40W AND 71W. LATER DAY 1 THE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF IS IN THE SRN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES AND IS HAVING A TOUGH TIME TRYING TO MOVE NE DUE TO THE BLOCKING RIDGE ALONG 70W. LITTLE HELP FROM THE NRN BRANCH SINCE A STRONG SHORTWAVE CLOSED OFF OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND THERE IS LITTLE COLD AIR SPILLING SWD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 LOOK FOR THE LOW IN THE SE GULF TO MOVE SLOWLY NNE WITH STRONG WINDS S OF 27N BETWEEN 75W AND 88W. NO GALE CONDITION EXPECTED BUT ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT COULD WARRANT IT. OTHERWISE THE PERSIST ATLC TROUGH HANGS ON NEAR 50W WITH WEAK CYCLOGENESIS NEAR 30N50W. WINDS ABOUT NORMAL ALL AREAS. FOR DAY 2 FINALLY A SHIFT IN MID LEVEL WINDS OVER THE SRN PLAINS TO NWLY HELPS DRIVE THE SHORTWAVE OUT OF THE GULF TO 80W. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE GRUDGINGLY GIVES WAY AND SLIDES TO 65W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 THE SE GULF LOW HEADS NE OVER CENTRAL FL WITH STRONG WINDS CONTINUING BETWEEN 70W AND 85W. ELSEWHERE MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS EXCEPT FOR TRADES S OF 18N WHICH WILL BE MOSTLY 20 KT. OUTLOOK PERIOD... FOR DAY 3 THE GULF SHORTWAVE LIFTS NE OFF THE SE COAST AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE OLD CLOSED LOW OVER THE NRN PLAINS THAT OPENS UP AND MOVES SLOWLY EWD. MID LEVEL WESTERLIES OVER MID OCEAN BECOME MORE ZONAL AS THE SHORTWAVE NEAR 50W WEAKENS. ON THE SURFACE DAY 3 THE FL LOW CENTER MOVES NE TO THE MID ATLC REGION BUT SWLY WINDS REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG W OF 65W WITH ABOVE NORMAL SEAS. GULF WINDS MOSTLY LIGHT DAY 3 AS WELL AS NW CARIB. ELY TRADES S OF 18N E OF 75W MOSTLY MODERATE. FOR DAY 4 BOTH SHORTWAVES CARVE OUT A LARGE SCALE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS WITH A MEAN AXIS ALONG 80W. OTHERWISE HIGH PRES DOMINATES AT MID LEVELS OVER THE REGION. ON THE SURFACE DAY 4 ATLC WINDS DECREASE W OF 65W AS THE LOW LIFTS FURTHER NE. THE ATLC RIDGE BEGINS TO WORK IT'S WAY WWD ALONG 23N INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. ELY TRADES INCREASE SLIGHTLY S OF 16N E OF 70W. FOR DAY 5 MAIN AXIS OF LARGE SCALE TROUGH CONTINUES ALONG 80W. A SHORTWAVE DRIVES SE TOWARD THE NW GULF. A MID LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE REGION BUT SOME SORT OF INVERTED TROUGHING DEVELOPS ALONG 50W AT MID LEVELS. ON THE SURFACE DAY 5 THE TREND TOWARD A STRENGTHENING ATLC RIDGE CONTINUES WITH IT'S AXIS ALONG 25N WWD INTO THE N CENTRAL GULF. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT OVER THE GULF AND NW CARIB DAY 5 BUT CARIB WINDS E OF 74W INCREASE SOME TO 20 TO 25 KT. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER RRG