000 AGXX40 KNHC 311759 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. UPPER LEVELS... A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE ATLANTIC AREA ALONG 61/62W. THE BASE OF THE TROUGH REACHES 21N. IT WILL MOVE EAST AND BE EAST OF 60W FRIDAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM A CUT-OFF LOW LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF LOUISIANA TO CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 19N98W. THIS TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE TO THE CENTRAL GULF FRIDAY THEN WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST GULF AND FLORIDA SUNDAY. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM CUBA NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRI THEN WILL SLOWLY MOVE EWD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC. SURFACE... MAIN FEATURE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE A TROUGH OF LOW PRES OVER THE EXTREME NW CARIBBEAN. IT AXIS LIES ALONG 87W ON THE 12Z SFC MAP. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES IS CENTERED ABOUT 75 MILES SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WHERE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WOULD LIKELY FAVOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AS A NON-TROPICAL LOW. CURRENTLY THIS FEATURE IS GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN MAINLY W OF 80W...INCLUDING PARTS OF WEST-CENTRAL CUBA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING HEAVY RAINS ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL ALSO BE HIGHER IN THIS AREA OF CONVECTION. WEAK HIGH PRES OFF SE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH FRI. THE TIGHTENED PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES AND HIGH PRES LOCATED OFF SE COAST OF U.S. IS PICKING UP ELY WINDS TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND SE PORTION OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS CONFIRMED THESE WINDS. WILL WRITE THE FORECAST KEEPING THE WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE THU NIGHT AND FRI. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 10 FT. A SURGE IN THE TRADE WINDS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TROPICAL NORTH ATL FRI AND ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SAT AND SUN. TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP LAYERED ATLANTIC TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N55W TO 23N63W. TROUGH WILL BECOME DIFFUSE FRIDAY. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER RRG