000
AGXX40 KNHC 291735
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

UPPER LEVELS...
DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC VORTEX 29N66W RIDING LONGWAVE TROUGH ALONG 
70W WILL EXIT AREA EARLY TONIGHT LEAVING DRY AIR MASS THROUGHOUT 
ENTIRE SW N ATLC REGION. 

SHARP RIDGE ALONG 82W ENTERS REGION WITH SOME MOISTURE ADVECTED 
FROM E PAC ACROSS GULF OF MEXICO.  UPPER LEVEL NEGATIVELY TILTED 
TROUGH NOW OVER NWRN GULF OF MEXICO PROVIDES DIFFLUENT FLOW 
ALOFT ENHANCING DEEP CONVECTION ALONG 90W AND MOVING QUICKLY 
INTO NERN GULF.  GFS...AS USUAL...IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL
WITH 25-30 KT SOLUTION LATE FRI AND SAT.

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER NRN COLOMBIA EXTENDS E PAC RIDGE 
INTO CARIBBEAN SEA KEEPING BASIN FAIRLY DRY EXCEPT S OF 14N FROM 
72W-80W.  RIDGE PROVIDES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP SURFACE 
TROUGH ALONG SWRN CARIBBEAN AND DEEP CONVECTION IS DEFINITELY 
NOTED IN AREA.    

AT THE SURFACE...
WEAK SURFACE LOW PRES 1012 MB AT 29N65W DRIFTING NE OUT OF AREA 
EARLY EVENING.  ASSOCIATED TROUGH RAILING SW TO NWRN HISPANIOLA 
WILL MOVE E OF AREA WED. 
 
SURFACE REFLECTION OF NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH IN NW GULF OF 
MEXICO TROUGH DEVELOP AS IT MOVES OVER ERN GULF OF MEXICO  
THROUGH SAT.  EXPECT INCREASE IN E-SE WINDS OVER ERN HALF AND 
MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLIES S OF 23N-23N LATE IN FORECAST PERIOD. 

LIGHTER THAN NORMAL EASTERLY TRADES RESULT IN DEEP LAYER TROUGH 
OVER SW N ATLC.  TRADES RETURN AS RIDGE REBUILDS OVER ATLC. 

WARNINGS...
ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER WALLY BARNES