000 AGXX40 KNHC 281816 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 215 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WINDS ARE GENERALLY E-SE 10-15 KT ACROSS THE GULF EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SE PART AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA WHERE E WINDS CONTINUE IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE. BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE REPORTING SEAS IN THE 4-6 FT OVER MUCH OF THE GULF...EXCEPT THE FAR SE PART ...AND THE NW COAST OF CUBA WHERE EARLIER SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATED MAX SEA HEIGHTS UP TO 8 FT. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM AROUND 1230 UTC THIS MORNING SHOWED LIGHT E-SE WINDS OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE GULF THROUGH SAT AS A RIDGE REMAINS JUST N OF THE GULF. WINDS OVER THE FAR SE PART ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BRIEFLY ON FRI...THEN INCREASE ON SAT BEFORE DIMINISHING ONCE AGAIN LATER ON SAT AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS E TO THE W ATLC. SEAS SHOULD BE ON THE RATHER LOW SIDE...IN THE RANGE OF 2-3 FT...THROUGHOUT THE GULF ON SAT. SW N ATLC... THE 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING AGAIN REVEALED A PERSISTENT FRONTAL TROUGH LINGERING OVER THE FAR SE WATERS. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE HIGH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUES TO RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG NE-E WINDS OVER MUCH OF AREA S OF ABOUT 28N. NE WINDS OF 25-30 KT ARE CONFINED TO N OF 27N E OF 68W WITH TIGHT GRADIENT DUE TO DEVELOPING LOW PRES JUST E OF THE AREA. ELSEWHERE S OF 27N NE-E WINDS ARE IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE WITH WINDS N OF 27N NE-E IN THE 10-15 KT AND SE-S 10-15 KT OVER THE SE PART. THE 1200 UTC SEASTATE ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING REVEALED THAT THE LARGE SEAS E OF THE BAHAMAS HAVE DECREASED TO 10 FT IN A SMALL POCKET N OF THE SE BAHAMAS. SEAS ELSEWHERE S OF 27N ARE GENERALLY IN THE RANGE OF 5-8 FT. N OF 27N AND OVER THE FAR SE WATERS SEAS ARE 4-5 FT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO SAT. THE LOW JUST E OF THE AREA NEAR 27N64W IS ADVERTISED BY THE NWP MODELS TO LIFT N THROUGH WED PULLING THE FRONTAL TROUGH E OF THE FORECAST WATERS. AN AREA OF RATHER WEAK HIGH PRES WILL THEN BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SAT. TROPICAL N ATLC...WEAKENING FRONTAL TROUGH STILL REMAINS JUST TO THE NW OF THESE WATERS OVER THE FAR SE PART OF THE SW N ATLC. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS TO BE OVER THE FAR NW CORNER NW OF LINE 22N62W TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. WINDS HERE ARE SE 10 KT. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE ATLANTIC...WINDS ARE E 15-20 KT MOSTLY SEEN S OF 16N. WINDS ELSEWHERE ARE E 10-15 KT. BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEAS IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE S OF 16N AND 4-6 FT N OF 16N. ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO BE SEEN HERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN THE TRADES BEGINNING LATE THU AND CONTINUING THROUGH SAT S OF 15N WITH WAVEWATCH INDICATING E SWELLS BUILDING TO 10 FT FRI AND SAT. CARIBBEAN... TRADES ARE RATHER LIGHT ACROSS JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN ...IN THE RANGE OF 10-15 KT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE AREA S OF 14N BETWEEN 66W-73W WHERE E-SE 15-20 KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED. A VERY ILL-DEFINED LOW IS OBSERVED OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N78W. IT APPEARS TO BE STATIONARY...BUT MAY DRIFT WWD WED THROUGH FRI. WINDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN ARE LIGHT WLY S OF 12N W OF 75W AND LIGHT E-SE E OF 75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS...LESS IN AREAL COVERAGE THAN HAD BEEN SEEN...WITH POSSIBLE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS ARE BETWEEN 74W-78W. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH TUE. OTHERWISE ...WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH WED AS HIGH PRES OVER THE ATLC WEAKENS. BEGINNING THU THROUGH SAT...TRADES INCREASE SOME E OF 75W AS ATLC HIGH PRES BUILDS W. GFS DEPICTS BROAD LOW PRES OVER THE W CARIBBEAN FRI AND SAT WITH TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT IN RESPONSE TO THE ATLC HIGH. SO FOR THIS FORECAST WILL INCREASE E-SE WINDS THERE FOR FRI AND SAT. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE