000 AGXX40 KNHC 280505 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM EDT MON MAY 28 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. WATER VAPOR CONFIRMS TWO STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGES..ONE OFF THE SE CONUS AND THE OTHER ORIENTED NE/SW OVER THE ERN ATLC. IN BETWEEN A CLOSED VORTICITY CENTER WAS NEAR 26N70W. A SHORTWAVE IN THE SRN BRANCH WAS OVER TX WHILE A STRONGER ONE WAS IN THE NRN BRANCH OVER THE ERN GREATLAKES. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT A WEAK PERSISTENT TROUGH HANGS ON FROM 31N60W TO 19N68W. THE ATLC RIDGE IS BACK OVER MID OCEAN NEAR THE AZORES AND A CONTINENTAL HIGH IS LOCATED OFF THE SE COAST. A WEAK LOW 1009 MB WAS IN THE SW CARIB. STRONGEST WINDS WERE OVER THE ATLC S OF 22N AND OFF THE FL COAST S OF 28N AND SE GULF. LATER DAY 1 LITTLE MOVEMENT OF MID LEVEL FEATURES S OF 35N. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 GFS MODEL STILL WANTS TO DEVELOP A WEAK LOW ON THE ATLC TROUGH AND MOVE IT NE. WINDS TO 25 KT ON THE E SIDE WOULD BE REASONABLE GIVEN THIS DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS AN AREA OF INCREASED CONVECTION ALONG 62W TONIGHT THAT MAY INDICATE A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING. OTHERWISE MODERATE WINDS E OF 70W AND MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS GULF AND WRN CARIB. FOR DAY 2 NRN BRANCH OF WESTERLIES REMAINS A FACTOR S OF 35N. STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER ERN GREATLAKES INFLUENCES THE CLOSED LOW NEAR 26N70W AND LIFTS IT NE. THE TX SHORTWAVE ALSO BEGINS TO LIFT NE WITH THE APPROACH OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 THE GFS MODEL SHOWS SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THE ATLC LOW NEAR 31N64W WITH WINDS TO 25 KT. NOT UNREASONABLE GIVEN THE VORTICITY FIELD LIFTING NE. OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE. OUTLOOK PERIOD... FOR DAY 3 THE NRN BRANCH REMAINS A PLAYER WITH THE ATLC SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE ALONG 58W. MID LEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUES OVER THE NRN GULF AS THE STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER THE PLAINS MOVES SLOWLY E. A FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGE HANGS ON BETWEEN 10N AND 24N. ON THE SURFACE DAY 3 A 1006 MB LOW EXITS THE REGION NEAR 32N58W WITH A TRAILING WEAK COLD FRONT TO 23N70W. WINDS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE ON THE E SIDE WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS. OTHERWISE THE ATLC RIDGE WEAKENS A FEW MBS AND THE ELY TRADES DIMINISH SLIGHTLY. GULF WINDS REMAIN LIGHT W OF 90W AND MODERATE E OF 90W. CARIB WINDS MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE. FOR DAY 4 MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ON S OF 23N WITH A RIDGE OVER THE SE CONUS. VORTICITY CENTERS MIGRATE OVER THE NRN GULF THROUGH THE RIDGE AND EWD ALONG THE NRN BORDER OF THE AREA. ONE FROM THE NRN BRANCH DIVES ESE TO 30N50W AIDING THE SURFACE LOW. ON THE SURFACE DAY 4 WHILE THE ATLC LOW DEPARTS..WINDS REMAIN 20 TO 30 KT N OF 25N BETWEEN 45W AND 53W. THE TWO HIGH CENTERS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS THEY DRIFT EWD. MODERATE WINDS FORECAST OVER THE ERN GULF..CARIB E OF 80W AND ATLC TRADES S OF 18N. FOR DAY 5 THE FIRST DAY OF JUNE..THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE NRN GULF TRIES TO MOVE EWD AGAINST THE MID LEVEL RIDGE THAT WANTS TO HOLD ON ALONG 80W. HELP IS ON THE WAY FROM A SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THAT SHOULD LIFT THE GULF SHORTWAVE NE. OTHERWISE NRN BRANCH WESTERLIES CONTINUE TO BRUSH BY THE REGION N OF 28N E OF 60W WHILE A FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS FIRM BETWEEN 15N AND 25N. ON THE SURFACE DAY 5 SOME TROUGHING BEGINS OVER THE N GULF WHICH COULD INCREASE WINDS OVER THE ERN GULF TO 20 KT. HIGH PRES CENTERS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT EWD WITH MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS N OF 20N E OF 80W EXCEPT FOR AN AREA OF SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT N OF 26N E OF 42W. CARIB WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO 20 KT WHILE ATLC TRADES S OF 16N REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME AT 20 KT. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER RRG