000 AGXX40 KNHC 271746 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 145 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WINDS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING OVER THE E GULF AS THE STRONG PRES PRES GRADIENT RESPONSIBLE FOR STRONG NE-E FLOW THERE THE PAST FEW DAYS IS WEAKENING AS HIGH PRES CENTERED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WEAKENS AND LIFTS NW THROUGH TUE AND BROAD LOW PRES OVER THE W CARIBBEAN HAS LESS AN EFFECT ON THE GRADIENT. E WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITH SEAS 6-9 FT ARE IN A SWATH THAT EXTENDS S OF 27N AND E OF 85W AS SEEN IN A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM SHORTLY AFTER 1100 UTC THIS MORNING. THESE WIND REPORTS ARE ALSO SUPPORTED BY SIMILAR SHIP OBSERVATIONS OVER THE SE WATERS AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA DURING THE MORNING AND EARLIER AFTERNOON HOURS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF WINDS ARE RATHER LIGHT...E-SE 10-15 KT WITH SEAS 4-6 FT ...EXCEPT FOR THE S PORTION OF THE MIDDLE GULF WHERE WINDS ARE E 15-20 KT AND SEAS 5-7 FT. THE FORECAST GOING INTO FRI OF NEXT WEEK FOR THE ENTIRE GULF IS FOR MORE TYPICAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR LATE MAY WITH WINDS TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND WITH SEAS IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE THROUGHOUT AS ADVERTISED BY THE LATEST WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE. SW N ATLC... THE 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING AGAIN REVEALED A PERSISTENT FRONTAL TROUGH LINGERING OVER THE FAR SE WATERS. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE HIGH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUES TO RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG NE-E WINDS OVER MUCH OF AREA S OF ABOUT 28N. NE WINDS OF 25-30 KT ARE CONFINED FROM ABOUT 24N-27N E OF 74W WITH NE-E WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT ELSEWHERE S OF 28N W OF 74W. THE 1200 UTC SEASTATE ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING INDICATED A MAXIMUM SEA HEIGHT OF 13 FT JUST E OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. SEAS ELSEWHERE ARE GENERALLY IN THE RANGE OF 5-8 FT WITH LESS SEAS OVER THE FAR SE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE BEGINNING TONIGHT...THEN A LITTLE FURTHER INTO TUE UNTIL REACHING RATHER LOW LEVELS NOT SEEN IN A WHILE BY FRI. LOW PRES TO SPIN UP E OF THE BAHAMAS AS ADVERTISED BY NWP MODELS DURING THE PAST WEEK APPEARS THAT IT HAS BEEN DELAYED AND NOT TAKE PLACE TILL BEGINNING TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING. THIS LOW WILL ACT TO PULL THE FRONTAL TROUGH E OF THE WATERS DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK WITH RATHER WEAK HIGH PRES FILLING IN OVER THE AREA. TROPICAL N ATLC...WEAKENING FRONTAL TROUGH STILL REMAINS TO THE NW OF THESE OVER THE SE PART OF THE SW N ATLC. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTM TO BE OVER THE FAR NW CORNER...HOWEVER WINDS HERE ARE LIGHT ON THE ORDER OF 10 KT FROM THE SE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE ATLANTIC...WINDS ARE E 15-20 KT MOSTLY SEEN S OF 14N. WINDS ELSEWHERE ARE E 15 KT. BUOY OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 7 FT N OF 14N. S OF 14N SEAS RANGE IN THE ORDER OF 5-8 FT. ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO BE SEEN HERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN THE TRADES BEGINNING LATE WED AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRI S OF 15N WITH WAVEWATCH INDICATING E SWELLS BUILDING TO 10 FT FRI. THESE SEAS SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH SUN THEN BUILD TO 10 FT PER WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE BY LATE THU GOING INTO FRI AS TRADES INCREASE. CARIBBEAN... TRADES ARE RATHER LIGHT ACROSS JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN ...IN THE RANGE OF 10-15 KT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE AREA S OF 14N E OF 70W WHERE E-SE 15-20 KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVING W 10-15 KT IS OVER THE NW PORTION ALONG 87W. BEHIND IT...THERE IS A SMALL SWATH OF NE-E 15-20 KT WINDS. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT WITH THE NE-E WINDS N OF 20N LASTING TILL ABOUT TUE MORNING. A VERY ILL-DEFINED LOW IS OBSERVED OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N79W AS SEEN IN THE CYCLONIC MOTION OF THE LOW CLOUDS THERE. IT IS MOVING SLOWLY E. WINDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN ARE LIGHT WLY W OF 70W AND LIGHT E-SE E OF 79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE BETWEEN 70W-77W...BUT HAVE DECREASE SOME IN AREAL COVERAGE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN IS AIDING THIS ACTIVITY. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH MON NIGHT. OTHERWISE...WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH WED AS HIGH PRES OVER THE ATLC WEAKENS. ON THU AND FRI...TRADES INCREASE SOME E OF 75W AND N OF 14N W OF 81W. AN ELY SWELL OF 8 FT MAY BE ENTERING THE S PART OF THE FAR E CARIBBEAN ON FRI. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE