000 AGXX40 KNHC 261735 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 PM EDT SAT MAY 26 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST 24 HRS AS HIGH PRES CENTERED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN FEATURE INFLUENCING THE WIND REGIME OVER THE AREA. GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT OVER THE E GULF DUE TO THE PRES DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE HIGH AND BROAD LOW PRES OVER THE W CARIBBEAN SEA. E WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE IN A SWATH THAT EXTENDS S OF 26N AND E OF 87W AS SEEN IN A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM AROUND 1130 UTC THIS MORNING. SEVERAL SHIP OBSERVATIONS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THIS MORNING AND FAR SE GULF INCLUDING BUOY 42003 HAVE BEING REPORTING SIMILAR WIND SPEEDS THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND EARLIER AFTERNOON HOURS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF WINDS ARE GENERALLY E-SE 15 TO 20 KT WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 5-8 FT...EXCEPT THE FAR SW GULF WHERE WINDS ARE 10-15 KT AND SEAS ARE 2-3 FT. THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINED OF THE WEEKEND ...AND INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK IS FOR A DECREASING TREND OF WINDS AND SEAS AS THE HIGH OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST MOVES WEAKENS...AND LOW PRES OVER W CARIBBEAN MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA ALLOWING FOR THE PRES GRADIENT TO RELAX. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER HE FAR SE PART AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS CURRENTLY OVER THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO MON...BEFORE DECREASING IN COVERAGE. SW N ATLC... THE 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED A PERSISTENT TROUGH LINGERING OVER THE FAR SE WATERS. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND STATIONARY HIGH PRES CENTERED N OF THE AREA OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUES TO RESULT IN A RATHER BROAD AREA OF NE-E WINDS MOSTLY IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE. THE 1200 UTC SEASTATE ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING INDICATED A MAXIMUM SEA HEIGHT OF 13 FT JUST E OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. SEAS ELSEWHERE TO THE NE OF THE BAHAMAS AGAIN WERE IN THE RANGE OF 8-11 FT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE BEGINNING ON SUN AND A LITTLE FURTHER INTO TUE...THEN MORE INTO THU. LINGERING E TO NE SWELLS OF UP TO 8 FT MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE SE BAHAMAS MON SUBSIDING TO ABOUT 4 FT WED AND THU. LATEST RUN OF NWP MODELS AGAIN SPINS UP A LOW TO THE E OF THE BAHAMAS BEGINNING SUN WITH MODELS AGREEING THAT IT WILL THEN TRACK NNE EXITING THE WATERS TUE. LOOKING AT THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES...IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE MAY BE AN ELONGATED WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES ALONG THE TROUGH WITHIN ROUGHLY 300 NM N OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. WILL FORECAST A LOW ON THE 24 HR WINDWARD CHART VALID 18 UTC SUN...AND REFERENCE THE IN THE SYNOPSIS OF THE NT3 AS WAS DONE THIS MORNING WITH ASSOCIATED WINDS DETAILED IN THE TEXT PORTION. TROPICAL N ATLC...WEAKENING FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE EXTREME NW PORTION WILL SHIFT N THROUGH TUE IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRES FORMING E OF THE BAHAMAS. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS GENERALLY E-SE 10-15 KT ...EXCEPT S OF 14N WHERE WINDS ARE E 15-20 KT. BUOY OBSERVATIONS FROM THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON SHOW SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 7 FT. THESE SEAS SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH SUN THEN BUILD TO 10 FT PER WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE BY LATE THU AS TRADES INCREASE. CARIBBEAN... TRADES ARE RATHER LIGHT ACROSS ALMOST THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN...IN THE RANGE OF 10-15 KT...WITH THE TYPICAL EXCEPTION OF THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 78W WHERE NE-E ARE IN THE 15-20 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON CLEARLY DEFINED A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE NW PORTION ALONG 86W/87W WITH A STATIONARY SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 18N87W. ANOTHER WEAK LOW IS WAS NOTED OVER THE SW PORTION NEAR 12N81W AS SEEN IN THE CYCLONIC MOTION OF THE LOW CLOUDS. WINDS TO S AND W OF THIS LOW ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO THE E OF THE LOW BETWEEN 70W-78W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROTRUDING SWD INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN IS ENHANCING THIS ACTIVITY. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE LITTLE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN POSSIBLY SEPARATE INTO TWO MASSES WITH ONE LIFTING N THROUGH MON...AND THE OTHER ONE MOVING LITTLE THEN WEAKENING INTO TUE. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH WED AS HIGH PRES OVER THE ATLC WEAKENS. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE