000 AGXX40 KNHC 251819 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 215 PM EDT FRI MAY 25 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST 24 HRS AS HIGH PRES CENTERED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN FEATURE INFLUENCING THE WIND REGIME OVER THE GULF. PRES GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT OVER THE E GULF...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS SEEN YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT. E WINDS OF 25-30 KT EARLIER NOTED OVER THE EXTREME SE PART OF THE GULF AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA HAVE SLOWLY DIMINISHED TO 20-25 KT DURING THE COURSE OF THE MORNING. SEAS THERE CONTINUE TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 8-10 FT WITH THE HIGHEST BEING OBSERVED NEAR THE NW COAST OF CUBA AND IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS FROM THE E GULF S OF 26N AND ALONG THE FLORIDA KEYS ARE PRESENTLY REPORTING E WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITH LESS WINDS N OF 27N IN THE RANGE OF 15-20 KT. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF WINDS ARE GENERALLY E-SE 15 TO OCCASIONALLY 20 KT WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 4-7 FT. THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IS FOR A DECREASE TREND OF WINDS AND SEAS AS THE HIGH OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC MOVES ESE AND WEAKENS AND BROAD LOW PRES OVER CENTRAL AND THE W CARIBBEAN HAVE LESS OF AN AFFECT ON THE PRES GRADIENT. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE ACROSS THE FAR SE PART. SCATTERED TSTMS AFFECTING THE LOWER TEXAS COAST SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SW N ATLC... THE 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED A PERSISTENT FRONTAL TROUGH LINGERING OVER THE FAR SE WATERS. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND HIGH PRES CENTERED N OF THE AREA OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUES TO RESULT IN A BROAD AREA OF NE-E WINDS MOSTLY IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AN AREA OF 25-30 KT FROM 24N-28N E OF 67W AS SHOWN BY A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING. THE 1200 UTC SEASTATE ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING INDICATED A MAXIMUM SEA HEIGHT OF 14 FT JUST E OF THE SE BAHAMAS. SEAS ELSEWHERE TO THE NE OF THE BAHAMAS AGAIN WERE IN THE RANGE OF 9-10 FT WHICH FIT PRETTY WELL WITH THE LATEST WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE. STILL LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED WITH THE PRESENT PATTERN AS ADVERTISED IN RECENT FORECASTS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE BEGINNING ON SUN AND A LITTLE FURTHER MON AND WED. LINGERING E TO NE SWELLS OF UP TO 7 FT MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE SE BAHAMAS MON SUBSIDING TO ABOUT 4 FT WED. LATEST RUN OF NWP MODELS AGAIN LIKES TO HINT OF THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW PRES FORMING ALONG OR NEAR THE E PART OF THE AREA SOMETIME LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOKING AT THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES...IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE MAY BE AN ELONGATED WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES ALONG THE TROUGH WITHIN ROUGHLY 400 NM NE OF PUERTO RICO. WILL ALLOW FOR SOME TIME TO PASS BEFORE MAKING THE CONCLUSION THAT THIS IS THE LOW A JASON ALTIMETER PASS FROM THIS MORNING REVEALED SEAS UP TO 13 FT JUST E OF THE BAHAMAS AND SEAS IN THE 9-11 RANGE IN THE AREA ELSEWHERE S OF 28N E OF THE BAHAMAS. THIS DATA FITS PRETTY WELL WITH THE 1200 UTC SEASTATE ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING. TROPICAL N ATLC...WEAKENING FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE EXTREME NW PORTION WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS POSSIBLE LOW PRES FORMS JUST N OF THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS E-SE 10-15 KT OVER WATERS N OF 16N...AND E 10-15 KT S OF 16N. SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS FROM THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON SHOW SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 7 FT. THESE SEAS SHOULD CHANGE VERY LITTLE THROUGH WED AS PORTRAYED BY THE WAVEWATCH MODEL. CARIBBEAN... WINDS ARE E-SE 10-15 KT E OF 75W AND NE-E 10-15 KT W OF 75W... WITH THE TYPICAL EXCEPTION BEING THE SW PORTION NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE WINDS ARE NE 15-20 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON REVEALED THAT A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH HAS FORMED OVER THE NE PORTION ALONG 84W/85W WITH SOME CYCLONIC TURNING NOTED IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD W OF 83W. THIS FEATURE WAS INDUCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS SWINGING EWD ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA S TO NW CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE MARKEDLY INCREASED IN RELATION TO THIS TROUGH AND OCCURRING N OF 19N BETWEEN 79W-83W. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO PROGRESS EWD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE BAHAMAS AND E CUBA. WINDS MAY BE LOCALLY HIGHER IN AND NEAR THE SHOWERS AND TSTMS. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH WED AS HIGH PRES OVER THE ATLC WEAKENS. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER ROWLAND/AGUIRRE