000 AGXX40 KNHC 250559 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EDT FRI MAY 25 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THE LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTROLLED BY GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES CENTERED JUST E OF CAROLINAS AND BROAD LOW PRES OVER THE E PAC ALONG 93W ATTM. ELY WINDS OF 20-25 DOMINATE MOST WATERS EXCEPT 25-30 KT OVER THE STRAITS OF FL. ASSOCIATED SEAS STILL LESS THAN 8 FT W OF 90W AND 8-11 FT E OF 90W WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS IN GULF STREAM MAX FLOW S OF MIDDLE FL KEYS. WIND AND SEAS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH AND SUBSIDE FROM THE W TO THE E THROUGH MON IN RESPONSE TO THE WEAKENING RIDGE AND THE E PAC LOW PRES SHIFTING W. A FEW SHOWERS STILL CONTINUING EXTREME SE WATERS...S OF UPPER FL KEYS...NEAR CAY SAL BANK. A FEW TSTMS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER NE OLD MEXICO...ARE INDICATED OVER THE W-CENTRAL WATERS NEAR 25N96W. SW N ATLC... PERSISTENT FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 28N55W TO HISPANIOLA EXPECTED TO LIFT SLOWLY N INTO THE SE BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND LIE QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH TUE. UPPER SUPPORT MAY TRIGGER A FEW FRONTAL WAVE LOWS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. GFS MODEL OVERLY AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS POSSIBILITY AND THUS THE NWW3 ALSO OVERDONE. SHOULD MENTION THAT GFS NOW DEVELOPS THESE LOWS WELL E OF BAHAMAS. FURTHER TO THE N...HIGH PRES NOW CENTERED OFF S CAROLINA COAST AND EXPECT LITTLE MOVEMENT THROUGH TUE. THE RESULTANT GRADIENT SQUEEZED BETWEEN TROUGH TO THE S AND RIDGE TO THE N ALONG 34N WILL BEGIN TO RELAX SUN. BY TUE EXPECT ONLY ELY 20 KT WINDS IN BAHAMA CHANNEL AND THROUGHOUT REMAINDER FL STRAITS. LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST E WINDS AT 20 KT AND SEAS A MINIMUM 6 FT BETWEEN FL AND NW BAHAMAS THROUGH WEEKEND...LIMITING HOLIDAY WEEKEND TRIPS. ALTIMETER DATA CENTRAL ATLC SHOWS NWW3 HAS GOOD HANDLE ON HEIGHTS. TROPICAL N ATLC...WEAKENING FRONTAL TROUGH OVER EXTREME NW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SAT...THEN EXPECT THE BOUNDARY TO LIFT NW OF AREA AND ALLOW TRADES TO BUILD IN. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS E-SE 10-15 KT OVER WATERS N OF 18N EXCEPT SMALL AREA N 10 KT TO NW OF FRONTAL TROUGH...AND E AT 15 KT OVER WATERS S OF 18N. CONVECTION ALONG ITCZ REMAINS S OF 8N ACROSS ATLC BASIN...WITH A FEW TSTMS NEAR 7.5N56W ATTM. SHIP AND BUOY OBS REPORT MAX SEAS 7 FT. LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH TUE. CARIBBEAN... ELY 10-15 KT WINDS NOTED ACROSS CARIBBEAN SEA...WITH THE EXCEPTION ALONG N COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE LATE AFTERNOON QUIKSCAT PASS CONFIRMS FORECAST OF NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT...AND EXPECTED SEAS 6-8 FT. A SMALL AREA NE 15-20 KT ALSO INDICATED ON QSCAT AND SSMI DATA S OF CUBA NEAR 21N81W WITH A SMALL AREA SEAS TO 7 FT...EXPECTED TO DIMINISH/SUBSIDE LATE TODAY. OTHERWISE CARIBBEAN CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH TUE AS HIGH PRES OVER THE ATLC WEAKENS. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER NELSON