000 AGXX40 KNHC 241830 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 PM EDT THU MAY 24 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WIND REGIME ACROSS THE GULF CONTINUES TO BE GENERALLY CONTROLLED BY HIGH PRES CENTERED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGING EXTENDING SW TO THE SE UNITED STATES. A RATHER STRONG PRES GRADIENT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS CONFINED TO THE E GULF RESULTING IN MODERATE TO STRONG E WINDS OF 20-30 KT WITH THE HIGHEST RANGE BEING OBSERVED OVER THE FAR SE PART AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SEAS UP TO 10 FT HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER MAINLY THE LOWER STRAITS OF FLORIDA THIS MORNING. BOTH BUOY AND SHIP DATA VERIFIED THESE SPEEDS THIS MORNING AND CURRENTLY STILL SHOW SIMILAR OBSERVATIONS. QUIKSCAT DATA FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED A STEADY SWATH OF NE-E 25 KT WINDS ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND WATERS ELSEWHERE E OF 85W. HIGHEST SEAS ARE FOUND IN RELATION TO THESE WINDS OVER THE SRN PORTION OF THE E GULF WHERE HEIGHTS AS BEING REPORTED BY BUOYS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 7-9 FT WITH POSSIBLE SLIGHTLY HIGHER SEAS IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH SUN AS THE RIDGE N OF THE AREA LIFTS N AND WEAKENS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING W TO E ACROSS THE MIDDLE GULF IN COMBINATION WITH THE VERY MOIST SE SFC-LOW LVL FLOW IS TRIGGERING A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS NEAR THE LOUISIANA COAST. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRI MORNING BEFORE BECOMING ISOLATED IN COVERAGE. SW N ATLC... THE AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NAMELY TWO FEATURES... ONE A TROUGH...THE OTHER HIGH PRES. THE 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING SHOWS A PERSISTENT FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 31N54W TO NEAR PUERTO RICO. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND HIGH PRES CENTERED N OF THE AREA OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST IS PRODUCING AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF NE WINDS IN 20-30 KT RANGE WITH HIGHEST WINDS OF 25-30 KT CONFINED BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND 75W AS SEEN ON QUIKSCAT DATA FROM AROUND 1100 UTC THIS MORNING...AND IN SHIP OBSERVATIONS THROUGHOUT THE AREA. 1200 UTC SEASTATE ANALYSIS INDICATED MAXIMUM SEAS OF 11 FT LOCATED E OF THE BAHAMAS WITH SEAS IN THE 9-10 FT RANGE NOTED N AND NE OF THE BAHAMAS W OF THE TROUGH. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE PRES GRADIENT WILL ONLY SLOWLY RELAX THROUGH SUN...THEN DECREASE FURTHER MON AND TUE. SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BEGINNING SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER AN ELY SWELL OF UP TO 7 FT MAY POSSIBLY LINGER OVER WATERS SW OF THE BAHAMAS INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA LATE SUN AND EARLY MON BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 3 FT TUE. OF SOME UNCERTAINTY IS THE SUGGESTION BY NWP MODELS OF LOW PRES FORMING ALONG OR JUST TO THE E OF THE SE PART EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW FUTURE MODEL TRENDS DEVELOP THIS POSSIBLE SCENARIO AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS...IF ANY TO WIND AND SEAS IN THE AFFECTED AREA. TROPICAL N ATLC...WEAKENING FRONTAL TROUGH OVER EXTREME NW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SAT. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS E-SE 10-15 KT OVER WATERS N OF 18N...AND E AT 15 KT OVER WATERS S OF 18N. AS STATED PREVIOUSLY CONVECTION ALONG ITCZ REMAINS S OF 7N ACROSS ATLC BASIN. SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS FROM THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON SHOW SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 7 FT. THESE SEAS SHOULD CHANGE VERY LITTLE THROUGH TUE AS WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. CARIBBEAN... WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN...WITH THE TYPICAL EXCEPTION BEING THE SW PORTION NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING REVEALED NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT. LOW LEVEL CLOUD MOTION AS DEDUCED FROM VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A WEAK NE-SW ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE S COAST OF PUERTO RICO SW TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS AND WEATHER IS BEING NOTED WITH THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES WNW 10-15 KT. THE TROUGH IS NOT EXPECTED TO CREATE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE PRESENT WIND AND SEAS CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OTHERWISE... CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH TUE AS HIGH PRES OVER THE ATLC WEAKENS. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER ROWLAND/AGUIRRE