000
AGXX40 KNHC 240603
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2O0 AM EDT THU MAY 24 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE INTERACTION BETWEEN HIGH PRES RIDGING E TO W ALONG 34N AND
PERSISTENT LOW PRES OVER CENTRAL AMERICA CONTINUE TO SUPPORT 
BRISK NE-E FLOW ACROSS THE GULF. ELEVATED PLATFORMS IN FL 
STRAITS REPORTING WINDS TO 30 KT ATTM...SO WILL RE-INTRODUCE 30 
KT OVER EXTREME SE WATERS THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH PEAK 
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH TO A 25 KT MAX TONIGHT 
AND CONTINUE THIS FORECAST INTO FRI NIGHT. MODELS REACTING TO 
BROAD LOW PRES S OF AREA WITH SURFACE FLOW MOSTLY NE OVER GULF 
WATERS E OF 90W. I EXPECT WIND DIRECTION TO VEER TO MORE ELY 
EARLY THIS WEEKEND AS LOW PRES TO S WEAKENS OR SHIFTS W OF 
AREA...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT INDICATE THIS SHIFT TILL SUN. 
WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT ACROSS ALL WATERS MON WITH 
SEAS TO 5 FT PRIMARILY IN CENTRAL AND NW WATERS IN SUBSIDING ELY 
SWELL. THE PERSISTENT CONVECTION IN FL STRAITS IS RAPIDLY 
WEAKENING THIS MORNING WITH ONLY A COUPLE OF TSTMS STILL FLARING 
PER LIGHTNING DATA.
       
SW N ATLC...
A PERSISTENT FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N54W TO MONA PASSAGE. 
THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND HIGH PRES CENTERED N OF 
THE AREA RESULTS IN NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT TO THE NW OF TROUGH 
EXCEPT 25-30 KT IN FL STRAITS. SEAS EXPECTED TO MAX NEAR 13 FT 
ALONG ATLC SIDE OF THE NE BAHAMAS ON FRI...THEN SUBSIDE THROUGH 
MON. THE ONLY COMPLICATION IS SOME GUIDANCE LIFTS THE SOUTHERN 
PORTION OF THE TROUGH NW THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS
ON SAT AND SUN...AND BUILDS A FRONTAL WAVE LOW NEAR 25N75W SUN. 
I WILL NOT GO WITH THIS SCENARIO...BUT IF THIS WERE TO HAPPEN 
THE NE 25-30 KT WINDS AND SEAS 12-13 FT COULD CONTINUE OVER NE 
BAHAMAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THUS MARINERS ADVISED TO MONITOR 
FORECASTS THROUGHOUT WEEKEND.        

TROPICAL ATLC...FRONTAL TROUGH OVER EXTREME NW PORTION OF 
TROPICAL ATLC ZONE NEAR 22N65W WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 
SAT. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS E-SE 10-15 KT OVER WATERS N OF 18N 
AND FROM DUE E AT 15 KT OVER WATERS S OF 18N. CONVECTION ALONG 
ITCZ REMAINING S OF 7N ACROSS ATLC BASIN. E SWELLS MAX OF 7 FT 
EXPECTED THROUGH MON.

CARIBBEAN...
THE N-S TROUGH IS MOSTLY OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WITH ONLY A SLIGHT 
NE-E WIND SHIFT OVER GULF OF HONDURAS THIS MORNING. A FEW NE 
WINDS TO 20 KT INDICATED NEAR TROUGH OVER NW WATERS. NE-E WINDS 
15-20 KT WITHIN 150 NM COAST OF COLOMBIA AS FORECAST. 
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH MON.

WARNINGS...

ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER NELSON