000 AGXX40 KNHC 231834 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 PM EDT WED MAY 23 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THE INTERACTION BETWEEN HIGH PRES BUILDING S OVER SOUTHERN CONUS AND PERSISTENT LOW PRES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A RATHER STRONG PRES GRADIENT OVER THE ERN PORTION OF THE GULF AS WELL AS THE ERN WATERS OF THE MIDDLE GULF. BOTH SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS FROM EARLY AFTERNOON SHOW E-SE WINDS OF 20-25 KT...WITH PRES ANALYSIS SUGGESTING WIND SPEEDS OF UP TO 30 KT ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM JUST AFTER 1100 UTC THIS MORNING REVEALED ENE WINDS OF 20-25 KT THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND MUCH OF THE ERN GULF. WITH THESE WINDS...SEAS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE E WATERS ESPECIALLY NEAR AND ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A SHIP WITH CALL SIGN WPKW REPORTED A COMBINED WAVE HEIGHT OF 8 FT NEAR 25N84W AT 1200 UTC THIS MORNING. SEAS ARE UP TO 10 FT IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. ELSEWHERE E OF 93W ABOUT WINDS ARE E-SE TO 20 KT WITH SEAS TO 8 FT IN E SWELL. UKMET WAVE GUIDANCE INITIALIZED PRETTY WELL WITH THESE SEAS AS COMPARED TO THE NWW3. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH OVER THE W ATLC WEAKENS ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A RETURN OF LIGHT WINDS AND RATHER LOW SEAS FROM LATE SUN INTO MON. SW N AND TROPICAL ATLC... PERSISTENT FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS ROUGHLY FROM 31N57W TO HAITI. THE TROUGH IS THE DIVIDING LINE BETWEEN STRONG WINDS TO ITS N AND LIGHT WINDS TO ITS SSE. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND HIGH PRES CENTERED N OF THE FORECAST WATERS IS RESULTING IN A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS TO THE NW OF THE TROUGH. THIS TIGHT GRADIENT IS JUSTIFYING NE WINDS OF 20-30 KT TO THE NW OF TROUGH WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING PRIMARILY BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND 71W. WINDS LESSEN SOME CLOSER TO THE HIGH CENTER ALONG AND N OF 31N. ALTHOUGH A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING REVEALED MOSTLY NE 20-25 KT WINDS TO THE W OF TROUGH...IT CAN BE DEDUCED THAT THE GRADIENT CLOSER TO THE TROUGH E OF 71W IS LEADING TO NE OF 25-30 KT THERE. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE E AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH SUN NIGHT AS IT MOVES TO A PSN JUST E OF THE FORECAST WATERS. WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH FRI NIGHT...DIMINISH SOME SAT AND FURTHER DIMINISH LATE SUN INTO MON AS THE HIGH TO THE N WEAKENS. HOWEVER ...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL STILL BE FOR LARGE RESIDUAL E SWELLS AFFECTING THE AREA IN THE VICINITY OF THE BAHAMAS AS WELL AS WATERS NE OF THE BAHAMAS TO NEAR 28N. WILL FOLLOW UKMET GUIDANCE FOR LATTER PERIODS SINCE IT APPEARS TO HAVE GOOD HANDLE ON SEAS INITIALLY...SIMILAR TO THE WAY IT HANDLES THEM FOR THE E GULF WATERS. WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS THROUGH MON AS THE ATLC TROUGH BEING TO THE N WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNCHANGED THERE. AN OCCASIONAL E SWELL OF 7 FT CAN BE SEEN IN THIS AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. CARIBBEAN... THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA HAS BECOME LESS DISCERNIBLE ON BOTH SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IN LATEST QUIKSCAT DATA AVAILABLE FROM THIS MORNING AS IT DRIFTS TO THE W. ASSOCIATED LOW PRES IS VISIBLE OVER PANAMA ALSO MOVING W. WINDS ARE LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT FOR THE SW PORTION CLOSE TO THE COLOMBIAN COAST WHERE QUIKSCAT DATA SHOWED NE-E 20 KT WINDS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH MON AS CURRENT BROAD SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS IN TACT. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER ROWLAND/AGUIRRE