000 AGXX40 KNHC 230615 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 215 AM EDT WED MAY 23 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES IS BUILDING S OVER SOUTHERN CONUS AND PERSISTENT LOW PRES CONTINUES OVER SW CARIBBEAN. THE ASSOCIATED TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT HAS INCREASED ELY WINDS TO SUSTAINED 25 KT STRAITS OF FL RIGHT ON SCHEDULE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS. MODELS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH POSSIBILITY OF 30 KT IN LATEST RUNS BUT IT IS STILL POSSIBLE LATER TODAY ESPECIALLY IN CONVECTION IN STRAITS OF FL. A BAND OF 15-20 KT WINDS EXTEND FROM NEAR DRY TORTUGAS TO SE TX COAST. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO INCREASE TO MOSTLY 20 KT SPREADING FROM E TO W THROUGH FRI THEN THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX A TAD LATE SAT. ELY 6-9 FT SWELLS...ORIGINATING FROM EXPECTED 8-12 FT WIND WAVES IN GULF STREAM...WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS CENTRAL WATERS INTO NW ZONE INTO SAT. GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT 15-20 KT SUN WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 8 FT OR LESS... NOTE THIS IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE EXTENDED NWW3 GUIDANCE. SW N AND TROPICAL ATLC... PERSISTENT FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM FROM 31N58W TO HISPANIOLA. EARLY EVENING Q-SCAT PASS AND LATEST SHIP REPORTS ARE NE 20-25 KT ALL WATERS NW OF TROUGH. MOSTLY SHOWERS CONTINUE ALONG BROAD TROUGH BUT TSTMS ARE NOTED THIS MORNING IN STRAITS OF FL WHERE REMNANTS OF ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH STILL HAS NOT WASHED OUT. THE MID ATLC FRONTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER THROUGH REMAINDER OF WEEK AS REINFORCING HIGH PRES BUILDS S ACROSS WATERS TO NW OF TROUGH. WITH SUSTAINED ELY WINDS 25 KT ACROSS NW BAHAMAS ATTM THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INCREASE TO 30 KT LATER TODAY IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY. A LATE AFTERNOON ALTIMETER PASS SHOWS NWW3 GUIDANCE WITHIN 2 FT OF OBS ALONG 30N AND IN PHASE WITH OBS FURTHER S OVER TROPICAL ATLC ZONE AND INTO E CARIBBEAN. EXPECT BAND OF STRONGEST WINDS TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY N ALONG 27N LATE IN THE WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN... PERSISTENT N-S TROUGH ALONG 83W AND CYCLONIC TURNING CONTINUES NEAR 11N80W BUT IT IS STILL ABOVE SURFACE. EVEN THOUGH CONVECTION HAS DECREASED PAST 24 HOURS SW CARIBBEAN...THE GFS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST WEAK TROPICAL LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. THE GFS THEN TRACKS THE LOW W ACROSS COSTA RICA INTO E PAC INTO THE MONSOON TROUGH DEEPENING IT TO A MINIMAL STORM SAT NIGHT AND SUN. OTHERWISE NORMAL ELY TRADES EXPECTED. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER NELSON