000 AGXX40 KNHC 221816 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 215 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... RETURN FLOW EVIDENT ACROSS THE GULF WITH A BROAD FETCH OF E-SE WINDS NOTED. THE HIGHEST WINDS...15-20 KT PER THIS MORNINGS QUIKSCAT PASS APPEAR TO EXTEND FROM THE FL STRAITS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF TO THE TEXAS COAST. BUILDING HIGH PRES OFF THE MID ATLC WED ALLOWS WINDS TO INCREASE WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI WITH WINDS PEAKING AT 20-25 KT THU AND FRI...WITH WINDS POSSIBLY REACHING 30 KT IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. ACCORDINGLY THE NWW3/FNMOC WAVE MODELS BUILD SEAS TO 10 FT OVER THE GULF. THE UKMET WAVE MODEL OVERFORECASTS SEAS TO 13-14 FT IN THE GULF AND THIS IS BEING DISCOUNTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER THIS SAME MODEL APPEARS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE HIGHER COUNTER CURRENT SEAS EXPECTED IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THUS WILL INDICATE HIGHER SEAS OF 12+ FT IN THE STRAITS LATE THU AND FRI. AS HIGH PRESS WEAKENS AND SLIPS OFF TO THE E...WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE SAT INTO SUN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS CONFINED TO THE MIDDLE AND E GULF ZONES. SW N ATLC... PERSISTENT FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM FROM 31N58W TO HISPANIOLA WITH THIS MORNINGS QUIKSCAT INDICATING MODERATE NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT N OF THE FRONTAL TROUGH AND LIGHT SE WINDS S OF THE TROUGH. LIGHTNING DATA INDICATED ACTIVE CONVECTION ALONG THE W PORTION OF THE FRONTAL TROUGH INTO THE BAHAMAS AND NEAR THE SE COAST OF FLORIDA. THE FRONTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE THROUGH 72 HOURS. HIGH PRES NEAR BERMUDA WILL BE REINFORCED BY A STRONGER HIGH MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLC COAST WED WITH NE WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT...POSSIBLY 30 KT N OF THE FRONTAL TROUGH WED NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI. NWW3 APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE SEAS E OF THE BAHAMAS WITH 11-12 FT SEAS FCST. THE UKMET AND FNMOC ARE SOMEWHAT WEAKER. GIVEN THE LARGE FETCH LENGTH WILL LEAN TOWARD THE NWW3 SOLUTION AND MAY EVEN GO A FOOT HIGHER. EVEN THOUGH HIGH PRESS WEAKENS FRI...20-25 KT WINDS STILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA S OF 27N FRI INTO SUN. THE HIGHER WINDS INTO SUN MAY BE A REFLECTION OF LOWERING PRESSURES IN THE W CARIBBEAN BY THEN. CARIBBEAN AND TROP N ATLC... PERSISTENT N-S TROUGH ALONG 82W SHOWS UP WELL IN THIS MORNINGS QUIKSCAT DATA WITH LIGHT NE WINDS OF 10 KT W OF THE TROUGH AND ELY WINDS OF 15 KT E OF THE TROUGH. SOME CYCLONIC TURNING NOTED IN LOW CLOUDS AT THE S END OF THE SFC TROUGH. GFS SUGGESTS TROPICAL LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS FEATURE OVER THE E PACIFIC BY LATE THU...HOWEVER IF THE SFC TROUGH AND ATTENDANT VORTICITY REMAIN OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR THERE. UKMET APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE LOW LEVEL/85H VORTICITY WITH THIS FEATURE. IN ANY EVENT WITH A BROAD AREA LOWERING PRESSURES WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN NORMAL WITH 10 KT MOST AREAS W OF 75W BY SUN. NEAR NORMAL TRADES EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER COBB/ROWLAND