000 AGXX40 KNHC 220612 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 210 AM EDT TUE MAY 22 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES NE AREA NEAR BERMUDA RIDGES W ALONG 31-32N TO N TX. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IN 15-20 KT RANGE WITHIN A BAND FROM STRAITS OF FL NE ACROSS CENTRAL WATERS TO TX COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRES EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TONIGHT ALLOWING ELY WINDS AND RESULTANT SEAS TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND W GULF BUT INCREASE TO SUSTAINED 25 KT OVER E WATERS WITH PERIODS OF 30 KT A POSSIBILITY LATE IN THE WEEK. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10-12 FT IN STRAITS...10 FT CENTRAL ZONE AND 8 FT OVER NW ZONE ON FRI AND SAT. SW N ATLC... A PERSISTENT TROUGH FROM 30N60W TO N HISPANIOLA WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH 72 HOURS THEN BEGIN TO MOVE E OVER WATERS TO THE N OF 25N THU THROUGH SAT. MOISTURE GUIDANCE STILL DEPICTS SOME REMNANTS OF TROUGH OVER S BAHAMAS THROUGH SAT. FURTHER N...HIGH PRES NEAR BERMUDA WILL BE REINFORCED IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHING OUT JUST N OF AREA TONIGHT WITH STRONG HIGH PRES THEN BUILDING S ACROSS FORECAST AREA. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE TO 25 KT ALONG 26N LATE TONIGHT AND FURTHER INCREASE TO 25 KT ALL WATERS N OF 25N THU. ENE WINDS TO 30 KT A POSSIBILITY STRAITS OF FL THU AND FRI DEPENDING ON DEVELOPMENT OF TROUGH OVER SW CARIBBEAN. A RECENT ALTIMETER PASS SHOWS NWW3 HAS GOOD HANDLE ON SEA HEIGHTS OVER ATLC WATERS E OF 58W. CARIBBEAN AND TROP N ATLC... PERSISTENT N-S TROUGH ALONG 82W WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT W ALTHOUGH MODELS NOW A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE W DRIFT. LOTS OF CYCLONIC TWISTING CENTERED NEAR PANAMA BUT APPEARS THE CYCLONE IS STILL ALOFT. NEEDLESS TO SAY BUT I WILL MENTION ANYWAY...THE LONGER THIS TROUGH HOLDS STATIONARY THE BETTER THE CHANCE OF TROPICAL LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT OVER SW CARIBBEAN. STRENGTH OF HIGH PRES TO N AND PERSISTENT FRONTAL TROUGH NEAR HISPANIOLA COMPLICATES WIND FORECAST BUT WILL GO WITH 15-20 KT TRADES. ALSO WILL GO 5 KT ABOVE GUIDANCE ALONG COLOMBIAN COAST. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER NELSON