000 AGXX40 KNHC 211733 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES THAT WAS OVER THE SE U.S. YESTERDAY HAS SHIFTED E INTO THE WRN ATLC. AS A RESULT...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EXTREME SE GULF AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA WHERE FRESH ENE WINDS PERSIST UNIMPEDED. HIGH PRES WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE WRN ATLC BY MID WEEK...ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE GULF...BUT PRIMARILY OVER THE EASTERN GULF WATERS THROUGH LATE WEEK. CARIBBEAN AND TROP N ATLC... PERSISTENT TROUGH ALONG 82W WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT W AND DAMPEN OUT THROUGH MID WEEK. AN ASSOCIATED 1010 MB LOW JUST N OF PANAMA WILL LIKEWISE SHIFT W AND WEAKEN. MEANWHILE DATA FROM BUOYS...SHIPS...AND QUIKSCAT SHOW MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE ELY FLOW IN ALL BUT THE AREA BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND JAMAICA...E OF THE TROUGH...WHERE FRESH ELY PERSIST. THIS AREA WILL SHIFT W WITH THE TROUGH THROUGH MID WEEK. THE MAIN FORECAST QUESTION CONCERNS WINDS LATER IN THE WEEK. A STRONG RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE N BY LATE WEEK. THIS WOULD NORMALLY RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN ELY FLOW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN AND TROP N ATLC. HOWEVER...MODEL CONSENSUS UNANIMOUSLY FAVORS KEEPING A WEAK TROUGH IN THE AREA N OF HISPANIOLA. THIS IN TURN WILL KEEP THE ELY FLOW FROM INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY. GFS HINTS OF WINDS INTO THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE ALTHOUGH COVERAGE IS LIMITED AND SPORADIC. GFS SPINS UP A WEAK LOW ALONG THE TROUGH WHICH COULD BE A LITTLE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. THUS GFS MAY BE UNDERPLAYING THE GRADIENT AND TOO WEAK OVERALL WITH WINDS IN CARIBBEAN. OTHER MODELS SUCH AS NOGAPS...NAM...AND ECMWF ALSO BARELY SHOW ANYTHING ABOVE MODERATE FLOW. HOWEVER WILL FAVOR CONTINUING FOR NOW THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR 15 TO 20 KT FLOW LATE IN THE WEEK IN ANTICIPATION THAT THE RIDGE BUILDING TO THE N WILL HAVE ENOUGH OF AN INFLUENCE ON THE REGION. SW N ATLC... EVIDENCE OF LINGERING TROUGH N OF HISPANIOLA SHOWING UP ON THE MORNING QUIKSCAT PASS. MEANWHILE WEAKENING HIGH PRES 1021 MB IS CENTERED N OF THE BAHAMAS. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES IS SUPPORTING CONTINUED WINDS AROUND 20 KT ALONG AND JUST TO THE N OF 25N. WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA N OF 25 N STARTING BY MIDWEEK IN RESPONSE TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO THE AREA FOLLOWED BY STRONG HIGH PRES FROM THE N. THE PERSISTENT FRESH TO STRONG ENE FLOW THROUGH LATE WEEK WILL PRODUCE LARGE SWELL THROUGH THE NRN BAHAMAS AND INTO S FL FROM MIDWEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO REMAIN IN THE AREA N OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO...KEEPING THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS MAINLY S OF THE STRONGER WINDS. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN