000
AGXX40 KNHC 201651
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1250 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE MORNING QUIKSCAT PASS ALONG WITH SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS 
SHOWED FRESH NE TO E WINDS ACROSS THE NE AND N CENTRAL PORTIONS 
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SHOWS AN INCREASING TREND SINCE 
YESTERDAY AND IS THE RESULT OF A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND A 
STATIONARY TROUGH S OF CUBA ALONG 81W. LIGHT WINDS PERSISTED 
ELSEWHERE. THE CONVERGENCE OF THE STRONGER WINDS OVER THE 
EASTERN GULF INTO LIGHTER FLOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF IS 
PRODUCING A FEW LINES OF CUMULUS ALONG WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS 
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS. MODERATE TO FRESH ELY FLOW OVER 
THE ERN GULF WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK BETWEEN THE 
HIGH TO THE N AND THE TROUGH TO THE S. WINDS WILL INCREASE 
SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE GULF BY MIDWEEK AS THE HIGH PRES BUILDS TO 
THE N.

CARIBBEAN AND TROP N ATLC...
A GENERALLY STATIONARY TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 81W S OF CUBA TO A 
1010 MB LOW NEAR 11N82W. THESE FEATURES ARE FAIRLY WELL DEFINED 
BY THE OBSERVATIONS...QUIKSCAT AND ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. 
HIGH PRES NOSING INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN FROM THE WRN ATLC...WELL 
TO THE E OF THE TROUGH...IS ALLOWING MODERATE TO FRESH ELY FLOW 
ACROSS THE ERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND MUCH OF THE TROP N 
ATLC. THE TROUGH OVER THE W IS NOT EXPECT TO SHIFT MUCH OVER THE 
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE ATLC WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT THROUGH TUE 
AHEAD OF A TROUGH NE OF THE BAHAMAS SHIFTING E. AS A 
RESULT...WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY THROUGH MIDWEEK IN 
ALL AREAS ACROSS THE REGION EXCEPT FOR NEAR THE COLOMBIAN AND 
VENEZUELAN COASTS.

SW N ATLC...HIGH PRES IS BUILDING N OF THE BAHAMAS BEHIND THE 
THE DISSIPATING REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM 
31N66W THROUGH S FLORIDA. THIS IS ENHANCING NE TO E FLOW THROUGH 
THE CENTRAL AND NRN BAHAMAS CURRENTLY. THIS CONVERGENT FLOW...IN 
ADDITION TO MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT ALLOWING LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVER 
THE BOUNDARY...IS PRODUCING AREAS OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS 
AND ADJACENT WATERS. THROUGH MID WEEK...FRESH TRADES WILL 
PERSIST THROUGH THE SRN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS S OF THE HIGH 
BUILDING OFF THE SE U.S. COAST.

WARNINGS...

ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN