000 AGXX40 KNHC 191843 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 240 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS PRESENTLY PUSHING SE ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AS HIGH PRES SETTLES IN ACROSS THE GULF. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 1200 UTC THIS MORNING REVEALED N-NE WINDS OF 10-15 KT OVER MUCH OF THE GULF...EXCEPT THE NE PART WHERE E WINDS PRIMARILY E IN THE 15-20 KT. SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SIMILAR WIND SPEEDS IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS...EXCEPT FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE NE AND E PORTION OF THE MIDDLE GULF WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TUE. STRONGER HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS SW INTO THE NORTHERN GULF FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH THU INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE MIDDLE AND E GULF. 15Z ATLC SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N68W TO THE SW BAHAMAS AND TO W CUBA. BOTH QUIKSCAT AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW NE WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE NW OF THE FRONT TO THE FLORIDA COAST. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT REACHES A LINE FROM ABOUT 31N66W TO CENTRAL CUBA LATE TONIGHT ...FROM 28N65W TO SE BAHAMAS SUN AFTERNOON...THEN BECOME DIFFUSE JUST E OF THE SW N ATLC MON NIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD E TO W ALONG 31N THROUGH MON WITH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT LESSENING TO 10-15 KT. WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE OVER MUCH OF THE SW N ATLC BEGINNING LATE TUE THROUGH THU AS STRONGER HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STARTS TO BUILD S-SW INTO THE AREA. A CARIBBEAN TROUGH EXTENDS ROUGHLY ALONG 82W S OF 20N WITH WEAK LOW PRES ON THE TROUGH NEAR 12N. HIGH PRES E OF 65W NOSING SW TO NEAR 23N IN COMBINATION WITH THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG E-SE WINDS ACROSS THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITH SEAS 7-9 FT ARE OBSERVED S OF 16N BETWEEN 66W AND 75W. SEAS THERE ARE RUNNING IN THE 7-10 FT RANGE. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUN MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 15-20 KT THROUGH THU WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 4 TO 5 FT. ALONG AND TO THE W OF THE TROUGH WINDS REMAIN RATHER LIGHT N-NE IN THE RANGE OF 10-15 KT. CONVECTION HAS INCREASED THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TROUGH REMAINS STATIONARY THROUGH SUN THEN SLOWLY MOVES W ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE W CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH WED...POSSIBLY MOVING INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THU AS MAJORITY OF MODELS SUGGEST WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS WHICH BRING IT INTO THE S CENTRAL GULF AS A LOW PRES SYSTEM. WILL DISCOUNT THESE TWO SOLUTIONS AS GFS HAS BEEN HAVING A TENDENCY TO SPIN UP SPURIOUS LOWS...AND AWAIT FUTURE MODEL RUNS BEFORE REFERENCING WINDS AND SEAS TO LOW PRES IN THE TEXT FORECAST PRODUCTS. WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT AND PREVIOUS THINKING ON KEEPING THIS FEATURE AS A TROUGH IN THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU. 1200 UTC WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE LOOKS GOOD FOR ALL FORECAST ZONES... EXCEPT FOR A SMALL PORTION OF THE MIDDLE GULF WHERE MAX SEA HEIGHTS BRIEFLY REACHED UP TO 7 FT AS ANALYZED ON THE 12Z SEASTATE ANALYSIS. THIS WAS ABOUT 2 FT HIGHER THAN THE WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE. LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEAS THERE BACK DOWN TO 5 FT WHICH MORE CLOSELY CORRESPOND TO THE GUIDANCE. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE