000
AGXX40 KNHC 181723
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
120 PM EDT FRI MAY 18 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

WEAK COLD FRONT FROM 27N82W TO 24N90W TO NE MEXICO WILL EXTEND 
FROM 26N82W TO 23N90W BY EARLY THIS EVENING THEN DISSIPATE LATE
TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM AROUND 1200 UTC 
THIS MORNING REVEALED N-NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT N OF THE FRONT 
PRIMARILY E OF 90W. SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SIMILAR
WIND SPEEDS IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA. THE GULF WILL BE UNDER THE 
DOMINANCE OF RELATIVELY WEAK HIGH PRES SUN THROUGH WED WITH 
RELATIVELY LOW SEAS.

15Z ATLC SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 31N72W TO 
CENTRAL CUBA. THIS TROUGH EXTENDS N OF THE AREA TO A 1009 MB
GALE CENTER NEAR 32N73W MOVING NNE 20 KT. BOTH QUIKSCAT AND 
SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW SE-S WINDS IN THE 20-30 KT TO THE E OF
THE TROUGH N OF 26N WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS CONFINED TO 
N OF 30N E OF TROUGH. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE E 10-15 KT 
REACHING A LINE FROM 31N70W TO E CUBA BY LATE TONIGHT...FROM 
31N65W TO NEAR HAITI BY LATE SAT AFTERNOON...THEN TO E OF THE 
AREA SUN NIGHT. WEAKENING COLD FRONT FROM 31N77W TO S FLORIDA 
WILL MOVE TO A PSN FROM 31N72W TO 27N80W TONIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE ON SAT. NLY WINDS TO 20 KT WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT
ARE W OF THE FRONT N OF 28N. AS THE FRONT WEAKENS...THESE WINDS
DROP TO LESS THAN 20 KT SAT AFTERNOON.

A CARIBBEAN TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LOW PRES NEAR THE COAST OF 
COLOMBIA NNE TO ALONG 17N80W TO CENTRAL CUBA. HIGH PRES E OF 65W 
NOSING SW TO NEAR 23N IN COMBINATION WITH THE TROUGH IS 
RESULTING IN MODERATE TO STRONG E-SE WINDS ACROSS THE S CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN. WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE OBSERVED S OF 17N BETWEEN 66W 
AND 75W. SEAS THERE ARE RUNNING IN THE 7-10 FT RANGE. EXPECT 
THESE WINDS TO CONTINUE TO AT LEAST EARLY SUN BEFORE DIMINISHING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 4 TO 5 FT. TO THE W 
OF TROUGH WINDS ARE LIGHT N-NE...GENERALLY 10 KT. NWP MODELS ARE 
IN AGREEMENT THAT TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE W CARIBBEAN SEA 
THROUGH TUE OF NEXT WEAK BEFORE DISSIPATING...HOWEVER GUIDANCE 
FROM BOTH THE CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS MOVES IT W INTO THE 
YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE TUE AND INTO WED. GFS LIKES TO BRIEFLY 
SPIN A LOW OFF THE TROUGH NEAR THE W BAHAMAS LATE SUN INTO MON 
AND MOVE IT NE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO THE FAR NE PART BY WED. 
WILL NOT USE THIS SCENARIO FOR THIS FORECAST...AND AWAIT FOR 
FUTURE RUNS OF THE MODEL BEFORE INTRODUCING DEVELOPING LOW IN 
THE SW N ATLC. WILL GO WITH MAJORITY IN MAINTAINING A TROUGH 
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE. IN ANY EVENT...IT DOES APPEAR 
THAT HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS BY WED OVER THE NORTHERN SECTION OF 
THE ATLC ALLOWING FOR STRONG E WINDS TO TAKE OVER MUCH OF THE SW 
N ATLC ZONE (AMZ 080).

LATEST WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE LOOKS GOOD FOR ALL ZONES EXCEPT THE
ATLC FAR NE PORTION E OF THE TROUGH AND SW CARIBBEAN ZONE 084
WHERE GUIDANCE VALUES MAY BE A COUPLE OF FEET UNDONE.

WARNINGS...

ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER AGUIRRE