000
AGXX40 KNHC 170620
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
230 AM EDT THU MAY 17 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

WEAK HIGH PRES OVER THE GULF MEXICO WITH MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS. A WEAK 
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF WITHIN HOURS THIS MORNING AND 
EXTEND FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY TO 25N92W FRI AND OVER THE FAR SE PORTION 
OF THE AREA SAT. WINDS BRIEFLY INCREASE IN THE NORTHERN GULF BEHIND 
THE FRONT. WINDS WILL DECREASE FROM W TO E SAT THROUGH MON AS HIGH 
PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.

ATLC SFC TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N77W TO CENTRAL CUBA. CONSENSUS MODELS
DEVELOP A LOW NEAR THE BAHAMAS LATER THIS MORNING THEN MOVE IT NNE 
OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH FRI. BOTH THE GFS AND NOGAPS ALSO DEVELOP A 
WEAK LOW IN NW CARIBBEAN THEN MOVE IT ACROSS CUBA SAT THEN NE OF THE 
BAHAMAS SUN THEN OVER THE FAR NE PORTION OF THE AREA MON. MOST LIKELY
IS A TROUGH REMAINING FROM THE BAHAMAS ACROSS CUBA INTO NW CARIBBEAN.

SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO 19N81W 
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW WEAK 
CYCLONIC ROTATION IN THE CLOUD LINES NE OF HONDURAS NEAR 17N84W...SO 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK LOW S OF CUBA IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY... 
EVEN THOUGH ONLY GFS AND NOGAPS ARE SHOWING THIS. ELSEWHERE SFC RIDGE
REACHING SW TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS PRODUCING E WINDS 20-25 KT IN THE 
SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN...WHICH CONTINUES THROUGH SUN THEN WEAKENS MON.

WARNINGS...
ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER MUNDELL