000
AGXX40 KNHC 161650
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EDT WED MAY 16 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

WEAK HIGH PRES PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF MEXICO WITH MOSTLY LIGHT 
WINDS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF EARLY THU  AND 
EXTEND FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY TO 25N92W FRI AND OVER THE FAR SE PORTION 
OF THE AREA SAT. WINDS BRIEFLY INCREASING IN THE NORTHERN GULF 
BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL DECREASE FROM W TO E SAT THROUGH MON AS 
HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.

ATLC SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY FROM 26N76W TO CENTRAL CUBA WILL 
EXTEND FROM 30N73W TO CENTRAL CUBA LATER TONIGHT. THE MODELS DEVELOP 
A LOW NEAR THE BAHAMAS THU MORNING THEN MOVE IT NE ALONG THE TROUGH 
THROUGH THU NIGHT THEN N OF THE AREA FRI. BOTH THE GFS AND NOGAPS 
DEVELOP A LOW IN NW CARIBBEAN THEN MOVE IT ACROSS CUBA SAT THEN NE 
OF THE BAHAMAS SUN THEN OVER THE FAR NE PORTION OF THE AREA MON.

SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM CENTRAL CUBA 
TO 16N83W WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY. AS STATED ABOVE GFS AND 
NOGAPS DEVELOP A LOW S OF CUBA THEN MOVE N OFF THE N COAST OF CUBA 
BY SAT AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE ATLC RIDGE REACHING SW TO THE LEEWARD 
ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE E WINDS NEAR 20 KT OVER THE SOUTHERN 
CARIBBEAN. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH SUN THEN WEAKENS ON MON.

WARNINGS...
ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER DGS