000
AGXX40 KNHC 160625
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
230 AM EDT WED MAY 16 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE DECREASING IN THE NE GULF. WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE 
PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS. A 
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF LATE WED OR EARLY THU WITH
WINDS BRIEFLY INCREASING IN THE NORTHERN GULF BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS
WILL DECREASE FROM W TO E SAT AND SUN.

ATLC COLD FRONT FROM 26N55W TO 24N62W WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE E OUT OF 
THE AREA. FORECAST MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS A WEAK LOW FORMING ON THE 
DYING FRONT NEAR 29N48W LATER TODAY...WHICH THEN INTENSIFIES BRIEFLY 
AS IT MOVES NW TO AROUND 31N54W FRI. AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES THE HIGH
PRES RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL DRIFT S TODAY...WITH THE STRONGER WINDS 
ALSO SHIFTING SWD. MODELS ARE SHOWING TROUGH DEVELOPMENT FROM ROUGHLY
30N72W TO CENTRAL CUBA AS EARLY AS TONIGHT. GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN
DEVELOPING A SERIES OF WEAK SFC LOWS WHICH THEN TRACK NNE ALONG THE 
TROUGH AXIS. EXPECT MOST LIKELY SCENARIO TO BE A WELL DEFINED TROUGH 
DEVELOPING OVER NEXT 24-36 HOURS...EXTENDING FROM NE OF THE BAHAMAS 
INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN...WITH WEAK LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE TROUGH 
AXIS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN FROM 
22N82W TO 11N77W. THIS TROUGH WILL DRIFT W TO ABOUT 84W THEN BECOME 
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH FRI AND DISSIPATE SAT. ATLC RIDGE REACHING 
SW TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE E WINDS NEAR 20 KT 
OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH SUN.

WARNINGS...
ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER MUNDELL