000
AGXX40 KNHC 151714
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

HIGH PRES ALONG THE E COAST OF THE U.S. BEHIND A BACK DOOR COLD 
FRONT IS WEAKENING AND THE 15-20 KT WINDS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO 
SHOULD DECREASE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE ACROSS THE 
REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS. A WEAK COLD FRONT 
WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF LATE WED AND WINDS BRIEFLY INCREASE 
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF BEHIND THE FRONT...THEN DECREASE FROM W TO 
E SAT AND SUN.

ATLC STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY FROM 26N65W TO 28N79W WILL DISSIPATE 
LATER TONIGHT. AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES THE HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL 
DRIFT S LATE TONIGHT AND WED WITH THE STRONGER WINDS ALSO SHIFTING 
SWD. TROUGH DEVELOPS FROM 30N73W TO CENTRAL CUBA EARLY THU. FORECAST 
MODELS INCLUDING GFS NAM NOGAPS ECMWF AND UKMET ARE NOW DEVELOPING 
THE LOW NEAR THE BAHAMAS LATE THU...WHICH THEN DEEPENS AND TRACKS N 
OUT OF THE AREA FRI.

WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN FROM 
18N82W TO 11N76W. THIS TROUGH WILL DRIFT W TO ABOUT 84W THEN BECOME 
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH FRI AND DISSIPATE SAT. ATLC RIDGE REACHING 
SW TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE E WINDS NEAR 20 KT 
OVER THE SE AND S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE 
THROUGH SUN.

WARNINGS...
ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER DGS