000
AGXX40 KNHC 150650
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
250 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

HIGH PRES BUILDING ALONG THE E COAST OF THE U.S. BEHIND A BACK DOOR 
COLD FRONT HAS TIGHTENED THE GRADIENT OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO AND 
ELY WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 15-20 KT N OF 27N E OF 88W. FRONT WILL 
DISSIPATE TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRES PATTERN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF 
THE GULF WITH MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO 
THE NW GULF LATE WED...AND WINDS BRIEFLY INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT.

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY FROM 28N65W TO SRN FLORIDA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE 
E OF THE AREA LATER TODAY. HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL 
INCREASE NE WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. STRONGER WINDS SHIFT S WED AS 
THE RIDGE MOVES SWD. TROUGH DEVELOPS FROM 31N77W TO INCIPIENT LOW 
NEAR CENTRAL CUBA EARLY THU. FORECAST MODELS INCLUDING GFS NOGAPS 
ECMWF AND UKMET ARE COMING INTO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...DEVELOP THE 
LOW NEAR CUBA THU NIGHT AND FRI MORNING...WHICH THEN DEEPENS AND 
TRACKS N OUT OF THE AREA FRI.

A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN FROM 
20N82W TO 11N77W. THIS TROUGH WILL DRIFT W TO ABOUT 84W THEN BECOME 
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THU AND DISSIPATE FRI. ATLC RIDGE REACHING 
SW TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE E WINDS NEAR 20 KT 
OVER THE SE AND S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE 
THROUGH FRI.

WARNINGS...
ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER MUNDELL