000 AGXX40 KNHC 130542 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 142 AM EDT SUN MAY 13 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC... THE REMNANT LOW OF SUB TS ANDREA IS FINALLY ON THE MOVE... SITUATED NEAR 30N76W AND MOVING OFF TO THE ENE AT ABOUT 10 KT. THE EVENING QSCAT PASS SHOWS THE WIND FIELD CONTINUING TO WEAKEN WITH WINDS JUST OVER 20 KT OVER THE SE SEMICIRCLE...AND NOTHING HIGHER THAN 15 KT IN THE NW SEMICIRCLE. BASED ON THIS...MAX SEAS HAVE LIKELY FALLEN JUST BELOW 8 FT. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NE THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH A COLD FRONT JUST N OF THE WATERS BY THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SWD ACROSS THE SE U.S. TODAY AND CROSS S OF 31N BY THIS EVENING...EXTENDING FROM 31N70W TO N/CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT AND FROM 30N65W TO S/CENTRAL FLORIDA ON MON. THE MAIN PART OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT E OF THE AREA TUE WITH THE REST OF THE BOUNDARY DISSIPATING ROUGHLY ALONG 25N. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE N/NE 20-25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND MON...THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH MON NIGHT AND TUE. THE GFS APPEARS TO BE OVER-EMPHASIZING THE IMPORTANCE OF EX-ANDREA AND THUS SHOWS WINDS INCREASING TO 40 KT OVER THE FAR NE PART OF THE ZONE. I WON'T TOTALLY DISCOUNT THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW BUT WILL INSTEAD GO WITH THE GFS/UKMET/NOGAPS CONSENSUS AND SHOW 25-30 KT BEHIND THE FRONT E OF 70W. THE UKMET WAVE MODEL DOES A BETTER JOB BUILDING SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT...SO WILL CONTINUE TO CALL FOR 8-13 FT IN N TO NE SWELL SUN NIGHT AND MON. FOR TUE THROUGH THU...ELY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AS A RIDGE BUILDS N OF THE AREA. THE GFS APPEARS TO SPIN UP A SPURIOUS LOW E OF THE BAHAMAS WED AND THU BUT THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN LOOKS MORE APPROPRIATE SHOWING A SFC TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER S FLORIDA ON WED THEN EXTENDING FROM 31N75W TO S FLORIDA ON THU. OTHER MODELS AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO AND SOME IN FACT DEVELOP A LOW ALONG THE TROUGH...BUT IT'S WAY TOO EARLY TO LATCH ONTO THAT. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MIGRATE WWD ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN AND IS NOW ALONG 82W. AN ATLC RIDGE REACHING SW TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE E WINDS NEAR 20 KT OVER THE SE AND S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND THIS PATTERN DOES NOT APPEAR AS THOUGH IT WILL BREAK THROUGH THU. ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ALSO SHOW THAT THE TROUGH MAY MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER W TO ABOUT 84W LATER TODAY...THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THU WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS W OF 80W. E OF THE ISLANDS...WINDS WILL REMAIN E/SE 10-15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT ON TUE WHEN WINDS MAY BRIEFLY BECOME NE/E OVER THE FAR N PART AS A COLD FRONT BRUSHES THE AREA. GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO SIT OFF THE TEXAS COAST BUT WILL BECOME RATHER ILL-DEFINED THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE A BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE FAR NE GULF BY MON MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE E 15-20 KT N OF 27N E OF 88W MON THROUGH TUE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-7 FT. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT ELSEWHERE AS A RIDGE DEVELOPS ALONG THE N GULF COAST MON THROUGH WED. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST EARLY THU BUT IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL...POSSIBLY INCREASING WINDS TO 10-15 KT OVER THE FAR N PART. AREAS OF SMOKE AND HAZE ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS OUT OF THE E IN EARNEST AFTER MIDNIGHT...LIKELY LEADING TO IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY MON. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER BERG