000 AGXX40 KNHC 121716 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 115 PM EDT SAT MAY 12 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC... 1005 MB LOW...THE REMNANT OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA...IS LOCATED AROUND 150 NM E OF DAYTONA AND IS MAKING A SLOW ENE MOVEMENT. IT REMAINS FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME AND CONVECTION IS PULSING OUT TO 120 NM ON THE NE SEMICIRCLE. CURRENT HIGH RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT DATA SHOWS UNFLAGGED 25 KT WINDS CONTINUING AROUND THE SYSTEM. WAVE HEIGHTS AT BUOYS 41009...41010...AND 41012 HAVE BEEN STEADILY DECLINING THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS TO THE EAST...AND ARE REGISTERING ONLY 3 TO 4 FT CURRENTLY. MAX SEAS NEAR THE CENTER IN THE STRONG WIND FLOW ARE LIKELY SUBSIDING SLIGHTLY...WILL KEEP 7 FT MAX SEAS IN NEXT OFFSHORE FORECAST. MEANWHILE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AREA TOWARD THE NE UNITED STATES. THE LOW WILL LIFT OUT OF THE AREA TO THE NE THEN E THROUGH SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. STRONG NELY FLOW IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT MOVES S TO AROUND 25N BEFORE STALLING TUE. BEYOND THAT...GFS IS LIKELY SUFFERING CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES AND REMAINS AN OUTLIER WITH THE ECMWF...NOGAPS AND UKMET SHOWING A LOW DEEPENING ALONG THE FRONT BY MIDWEEK AND LIFTING NE. NONETHELESS...MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT AT LEAST A WEAK TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE BAHAMAS BY MID WEEK AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS GETTING HARD TO DISCERN IN QUIKSCAT...SHIP AND BUOY DATA. MOSTLY ELY FLOW PREVAILS...WITH ONLY A HINT OF TROUGHING IN THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN...NW OF THE RESIDENT LOW OVER COASTAL COLOMBIA. RIDGING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH THE LEEWARDS IS STILL MAINTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH ELY FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SLIGHT UPTICK IN WINDS IS FORECAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN ATLC TO THE N OF THE AREA. FURTHER E OVER TROP ATLC WATERS...FAIRLY LIGHT FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE CURRENTLY...BUT AS IN EASTERN CARIBBEAN MAY SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN ELY FLOW AS HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE N. GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK PRES REGIME IN PLACE CURRENTLY WITH HIGH PRES CENTER OVER TEXAS. LIGHT NLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS GULF WATERS. A BROAD SMOKE PLUME IS EVIDENT OVER THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF AN UPPER LOW PRES SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF. VERY LOCALIZED LOW LEVEL HAZE AND SMOKE FROM FIRES IN N FLORIDA AND S GEORGIA IS EVIDENT IN THE EASTERN GULF NEAR THE FLORIDA COAST AS WELL. NELY FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE NE GULF BY MON AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN