000 AGXX40 KNHC 120609 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 209 AM EDT SAT MAY 12 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC... THE REMNANT LOW OF ANDREA HAS MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST 24 HRS...NOW LOCATED ABOUT 100 NM ENE OF MELBOURNE FLORIDA. CONVECTION HAS BEEN PULSING NEAR THE CENTER ALL DAY WITH THE LATEST ROUND POPPING UP JUST N OF THE CENTER. AN EVENING QSCAT PASS SHOWED MAXIMUM UNFLAGGED WINDS OF 25 KT INDICATING THAT THE CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WIND DOWN REGARDLESS OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. HIGHEST RECENT WAVE REPORTS HAVE BEEN 6-7 FT AT BUOY 41010 AND SHIP J8NZ E OF THE CENTER...SO WILL CONTINUE HIGHEST SEAS OF 8 FT FOR NOW. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE... EXCEPT THE NAM...TEND TO KICK THE REMNANT LOW TOWARDS THE NE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HRS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE N. THE FORECAST OF WINDS AROUND THE LOW WILL SHY ON THE SIDE OF THE 18Z GFDL RUN BASED ON THE FACT THAT IT IS THE ONLY MODEL TO HAVE A CLOSE DEPICTION OF THE CURRENT WIND FIELD...YET I WILL NOT GO ANY HIGHER THAN 25 KT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE COLD FRONT PASSING S OF 31N SUN NIGHT SO WILL RELY ON THE GFS/UKMET/NOGAPS CONSENSUS FOR TIMING. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE ALSO TRENDING A LITTLE HIGHER WITH WIND SPEEDS...CALLING FOR WINDS TO TURN OUT OF THE NE AND E BEHIND THE FRONT AND INCREASE TO 20-30 KT OVER THE ENTIRE AREA N OF 27N THROUGH MON. I WILL ALSO TREND SEAS UP A BIT TO 8-13 FT IN N TO NE SWELLS ON MON...SUBSIDING SLOWLY THROUGH WED. A RIDGE SETS UP N OF THE AREA ALONG 33N TUE AND WED AND WILL PRODUCE MAINLY ELY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. SOME TROUGHING MAY DEVELOP OVER THE BAHAMAS ON WED SO WILL MONITOR MODEL TRENDS THERE. BASED ON THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE REMNANTS OF ANDREA...SMOKE FROM THE LARGE FIRES OVER N FLORIDA AND S GEORGIA WILL LIKELY BE BLOWN OVER THE ATLC WATERS. WILL ADD MENTION OF SMOKE AND HAZE PRIMARILY FROM 24N TO 28N W OF 75W FOR TODAY THROUGH SUN BASED ON 925/850 MB STREAMLINES. THE FLOW TURNS OUT OF THE NE BY SUN NIGHT AND SHOULD THEN PUSH ANY SMOKE SW INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... THE PATTERN REMAINS STAGNANT OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE ATLC RIDGE PUSHING SE INTO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM COLOMBIA TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. WINDS ARE NEAR 20 KT OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN AND THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND A BIT TO THE W ON SUN AS THE RIDGE BUILDS W. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT N/NELY OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WITH THE TROUGH STAYING NEARLY STATIONARY. E OF THE ISLANDS...E/SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AN ATLC COLD FRONT BRUSHES THE NRN WATERS TUE/WED AND BRIEFLY TURNS WINDS OUT OF THE NE. GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK HIGH PRES REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF WITH WINDS OVER THE REGION MAINLY 5-10 KT...EXCEPT UP TO 15 KT OFF THE YUCATAN COAST WHERE A NOCTURNAL JET SETS UP. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUN NIGHT BUT THEN A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE FAR NE GULF MON MORNING WITH WINDS STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE OUT OF THE NE/E 15-20 KT MAINLY N OF 26N E OF 88W THROUGH TUE MORNING. A SURFACE RIDGE THEN BUILDS ALONG THE N GULF COAST TUE AND WED WITH MAINLY ELY WINDS TAKING HOLD OVER THE REGION. BASED ON LOW-LEVEL WIND TRAJECTORIES WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SMOKE AND HAZE OVER THE E GULF ZONE THROUGH SUN. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NE SUN NIGHT WHICH WOULD TEND TO THEN BLOW THE SMOKE ACROSS THE N/CENTRAL GULF...BUT HOPEFULLY RAINFALL ALONG THE FRONT WILL HELP TO EXTINGUISH THE FIRES BEFORE THEN. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER BERG