000 AGXX40 KNHC 110558 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 158 AM EDT FRI MAY 11 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC... THE FINAL ADVSY WAS WRITTEN ON SUB TD ANDREA WITH THE SYSTEM CONTINUING ITS FILLING AND WIND DOWN INTO A REMNANT LOW. MAXIMUM WINDS ACCORDING TO A 0016 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS WERE NEAR 30 KT WITHIN ABOUT 30 NM NW OF THE CENTER...WHILE BUOYS 41009 AND 41010 ARE CURRENTLY NEAR 20 KT. SEAS AT THE THREE FLORIDA BUOYS ARE DOWN TO 6-7 FT ALTHOUGH BASED ON THE MAXIMUM WINDS THE HIGHEST SEAS ARE PROBABLY STILL AROUND 10 FT OR SO. THE OFCL FCST CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN ANDREA THROUGH SAT NIGHT MEANDERING OFF THE E FLORIDA COAST BEFORE IT DISSIPATES...THEN LIKELY BECOMING ABSORBED BY AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON SUN AS ADVERTISED BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. THE GFDL APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE WIND FIELD SINCE THE OTHER MODELS INITIALIZE THE SYSTEM TOO WEAK. SEAS WILL BE KEPT UP A FEW FT HIGHER THAN THE NWW3 GUIDANCE GIVEN THE POOR PERFORMANCE OF THE GFS. ELSEWHERE...LIGHT SLY FLOW EXTENDS E OF ANDREA WITH A FEW EMBEDDED SFC TROUGHS FROM THE BAHAMAS NEWD. A WEAK LOW MAY DEVELOP OUT OF THIS REGION BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN E OF 65W AS IT MOVES NE INTO THE OPEN ATLC. A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SE PART ON SAT BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NW WATERS ON SUN WITH WINDS INCREASING OUT OF THE N/NE 20-25 KT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. SEAS STILL LOOK ON TRACK TO BUILD TO 7-11 FT IN NE SWELL BASED ON LATEST WAVE GUIDANCE. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 30N65W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS MON THEN MOVE E OF THE AREA TUE AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES SETTLES IN ALONG 32N. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A SHARP SFC TROUGH CONTINUES TO SIT FROM COLOMBIA NWD TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SEPARATING MODERATE ELYS TO ITS E FROM LIGHT N/NELYS TO ITS W. WINDS TO 20 KT ARE SITUATED PRIMARILY S OF 15N E OF 72W WITH THE ATLC RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. THIS BAND OF WINDS IS LIKELY TO SHIFT A LITTLE FARTHER W MON AND TUE AS A NEW AREA OF HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE W ATLC. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE WEAKER PRES GRADIENT. NO PROBLEMS E OF THE ISLANDS WITH WINDS OUT OF THE E/SE 10-15 KT AND SEAS 4-6 FT IN ELY SWELLS. GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK HIGH PRES IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 27N92W AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MON...THEN DISSIPATE TUE AS A RIDGE REACHES ACROSS THE N GULF COAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH SEAS IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE...AND ALMOST CALM OVER THE NW GULF NEAR THE HIGH. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NE GULF WATERS LATE SUN AND EXTEND FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE LOUISIANA COAST ON MON...THEN DISSIPATE ON TUE. THE GFS INCREASES WINDS TO 20-25 KT OVER THE FAR NE GULF ON MON BEHIND THE FRONT BUT FOR NOW WILL ONLY INCREASE WINDS TO 15-20 KT AS A COMPROMISE...AND MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER BERG