000 AGXX40 KNHC 091752 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 145 PM EDT WED MAY 09 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC... DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT THAT FLEW THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRES SYSTEM OFF THE GEORGIA AND CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING SHOW THAT THE SYSTEM HAS TAKEN ON SOME TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. NAMELY...THE LOWER LEVEL WINDS ARE STRONGER THAN ALOFT. FURTHERMORE...QUIKSCAT IMAGERY FROM EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED 40 TO 50 KT SE SIDE IN AN AREA OF CONVECTION. IN FACT JUDGING BY SATELLITE AND COASTAL RADAR IMAGERY...THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION IS RELEGATED TO THE EASTERN SIDE OVER THE WATER...AND IN CONVECTIVE BANDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE IMPACT COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA. DATA FROM BUOYS 41010 AND 41008 ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE STORM SHOW JUST UNDER GALE FORCE WINDS. THE AIR FORCE DATA SHOWED A MIN SLP OF 1003 MB. A WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA THIS MORNING FOR THE GEORGIA AND NE FLORIDA COASTLINES. MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT SHOWING A SLOW SW MOVEMENT TOWARD COASTLINE OF NE FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AND WEAKENING AS IT GOES. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH LATEST TRENDS SHOWING THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTION DECREASING SO FAR TODAY. MOST MODELS DIMINISH THE WINDFLOW CONSIDERABLY AFTER 24 HOURS. HOWEVER LATEST GFDL MODEL SHOWS FRESH TO STRONG SLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW IN THE TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND HIGH PRES TO THE EAST. SINCE MOST MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO QUICK TO DIMINISH THE WINDS AROUND THIS SYSTEM OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WILL FOLLOW STRONGER AND BETTER INITIALIZED GFDL AND CONTINUE STRONGER SLY FLOW INTO THE WEEKEND OVER WATERS N OF THE BAHAMAS. LOOKING AHEAD...WILL FOLLOW GFS/NAM/ECMWF CONSENSUS FOR SUN INTO MON...SHOWING A RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE N AND THE LOW SLOWLY DISSIPATING ALONG THE NE COAST OR JUST INLAND. .CARIBBEAN AND TROP N ATLC... RIDGING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS ALLOWING MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND PARTS OF TROP N ATLC WITH MODERATE E SWELL. WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN FURTHER W WILL ALLOW LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW TO PERSIST. .GULF OF MEXICO... 1017 MB SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE N CENTRAL GULF MAINTAINING LIGHT FLOW FOR THE MOST PART ACROSS THE BASIN. NO CHANGES EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... TROPICAL STORM WARNING...N OF 29N W OF 77W. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN