000 AGXX40 KNHC 090610 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 210 AM EDT WED MAY 09 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC... SUBTROPICAL-LOOKING AREA OF LOW PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 31N79W WITH AN ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRES OF 1000 MB AND CONTINUES TO DRIFT W TOWARDS THE GEORGIA/N FLORIDA COAST. A HIGH-RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT PASS AROUND 2328 UTC THIS EVENING DEPICTS THE WIND FIELD AS A BROAD DOUGHNUT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM S OF THE CENTER. MAXIMUM WINDS SHOWN IN THE DATA ARE 50 KT...BUT THESE ARE COLLOCATED WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS SO THE ESTIMATES COULD BE A LITTLE INFLATED. DATA JUST OUTSIDE THE BAND WITHIN THE JAX/MLB COASTAL WATERS ARE RUNNING 35-40 KT WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE 31-33 KT WHICH HAS BEEN REPORTED AT BUOY 41012. WHETHER OR NOT THIS LOW BECOMES MORE TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL... THE NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE BEEN BEHAVING HORRENDOUSLY. THE PRES OF THE SYSTEM IS RUNNING ABOUT 5 MB LOWER THAN WHAT WAS FCST 24 HRS AGO...AND THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY WEAKENING THE WINDS BELOW GALE BY MORNING. INSTEAD...THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN MAINTAINING AT LEAST STRONG GALE CRITERIA WITH SOME BANDS OF CONVECTION GETTING CLOSER TO THE CENTER. WE ARE NOW GETTING GFDL GUIDANCE AND AM INCLINED TO LEAN TOWARDS THAT SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS GALES GOING UNTIL A MODEL-FCST LANDFALL SOMETIME THU MORNING. THE NAM 0-30 MB WINDS ALSO GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO AND BRINGS WINDS BELOW 35 KT BY SUNRISE THU. EVEN AS THE CENTER TRACKS W OVER THE COOLER COASTAL WATERS...SW WINDS WITHIN THE SE QUAD WILL STILL BE OVER THE GULF STREAM AND COULD STILL PRODUCE GALES. I WOULD ALSO RATHER KEEP THE WARNING GOING IN ANTICIPATION OF THE UNCERTAINTIES OF WHAT MAY TRANSPIRE LATER TODAY WHEN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE INVESTIGATES THE SYSTEM. NWW3 GUIDANCE IS STILL A LITTLE ON THE LOW SIDE...SHOWING 13 FT WHERE BUOY 41012 IS REPORTING UP TO 15 FT. SINCE GFS GUIDANCE QUICKLY WEAKENS THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE DAY...THE NWW3 FOLLOWS SUIT WITH QUICKLY SUBSIDING SEAS. SINCE THE FCST WILL LEAN ON THE STRONGER GFDL/NAM RUNS...SEAS WILL BE KEPT INTO THE 12-14 FT RANGE THROUGH THE DAY AND TONIGHT WITHIN THE HIGHER WIND REGIME. GULF OF MEXICO... BENIGN CONDITIONS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF AS HIGH PRES SETTLES IN JUST OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST. MAIN CONCERN AT THE MOMENT IS OVER THE E GULF WHERE NLY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE ATLC LOW HAS BEEN BRINGING SMOKE FROM THE SRN GEORGIA/N FLORIDA FIRES SWD ALL THE WAY TO W CUBA. BY THE LAST FEW VIS IMAGES OF THE DAY...THE SMOKE PLUME WAS MAINLY S OF 26N AND NOW VISIBILITIES OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS ARE DOWN TO 3-5 STATUTE MILES. SINCE THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FLOW IS TURNING MORE W/NWLY AS THE ATLC LOW MOVES W...ANY SMOKE PLUMES THAT DEVELOP ARE MORE LIKELY TO MOVE TOWARDS THE ATLC WATERS. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... FRESH TRADES CONTINUE OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN WATERS DUE TO THE ATLC RIDGE NOSING S ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC. IN THE MEANTIME...WINDS REMAIN LIGHT OVER THE W CARIBBEAN DUE TO LOW PRES OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA. FEW CHANGES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS UNTIL ABOUT SAT AND SUN WHEN WINDS MAY RELAX JUST A BIT. NWW3 GUIDANCE LOOKS MORE OR LESS IN LINE WITH SWELLS AFFECTING THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WITH SEAS GENERALLY IN THE 5-6 FT RANGE. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... GALE WARNING...N OF 29N W OF 76W. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER BERG