000 AGXX40 KNHC 070617 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 218 AM EDT MON MAY 07 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC... WELL ADVERTISED STORM FORCE SYSTEM DEVELOPING N OF THE AREA WITH ESTIMATED 998 MB SFC LOW...4 MB DEEPER THEN THE 6 HR FCST OF THE GFS...NEAR 33.5N73W. BUOY 41001 E OF CAPE HATTERAS REPORTING 36 FT SEAS ATTM. COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW OF THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY CUTTING ACROSS THE FCST AREA THROUGH 31N71W TO THE E-CENTRAL FL COAST NEAR VERO BEACH AND IS USHERING IN GALES OVER THE NRN PORTION OF THE FCST AREA...THOUGH GALES HAVE YET TO REACH BUOY 41010. SHORT TERM FCST OF THE UKMET WAVE MODEL HANDLING THE ONSET OF THE HIGHER SEAS BETTER THAN THE SHORT TERM FCST OF THE NWW3 AND WILL GO WITH THE UKMET WAVE MODEL IN THE FCST. AS FOR THE TRACK OF THE STORM SYSTEM NWP MODELS SPLIT INTO 2 CAMPS WITH THE NOGAPS/UKMET/ECMWF CARRYING THE LOW WSWWD ACROSS THE SW N ATLC INTO E-CENTRAL FL BY 00Z THU...WHILE THE NAM/CMC/GFS TURN THE SYSTEM NNWWD TOWARD THE CAROLINAS BY 00Z THU. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE LATTER SUITE OF MODELS WHICH ESSENTIALLY MOVES THE SYSTEM ALONG 31N AND THEREFORE KEEPS THE STRONGEST WINDS N OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...A QUICK LOOK AT THE GFS 30M AND NAM 975 MB WINDS SUGGESTS STORM FORCE WINDS MAY ROTATE AROUND THE SYSTEM AND BRUSH THE FAR N PORTION OF THE AREA IN THE W QUADRANT OF THE WWD MOVING LOW. BASED ON THIS WILL GO WITH A STORM WARNING FOR THE FAR N PORTION OF THE AREA N OF 30N THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH A STRONG GALE ELSEWHERE N OF 28N W OF 74W. WINDS SLOWLY DECREASE TUE AS LOW MOVES TOWARD THE SE COAST. SLY GALES CONTINUE FAR N PORTION OF THE AREA INTO WED AS WELL THEN SUBSIDE THU INTO FRI. LATTER PORTION OF THE FCST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND ALL BETS ARE OFF SHOULD THE LOW TRANSITION INTO A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM. GULF OF MEXICO... STRONG RETURN FLOW EVIDENT W OF 93W AS GRADIENT BETWEEN MID-ATLC HIGH PRES AND STATIONARY LOW PRES OVER THE SRN PLAINS TIGHTENS. BACK DOOR COLD FRONT FROM STORM OFF SE COAST MOVING INTO NE PORTION OF THE AREA AND FRESHENING WINDS THERE AS WELL. WIND FIELD BEHIND THE FRONT BLENDS WITH RETURN FLOW WIND REGIME SUCH THAT A BROAD AREA OF NE TO E WINDS OF 20 KT COVERS THE GULF LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS SFC LOW TURNS TOWARD THE CAROLINAS AND AROUND THE DEPARTING MID ATLC HIGH PRES LATE TUE AND WED... OVERALL PATTERN RELAXES WITH WINDS DECREASING TO 10-15 KT MOST AREAS LATE TUE/WED THROUGH FRI. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... WITH THE STORM SYSTEM IN THE SW N ATLC IN PLACE OF THE NORMAL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TRADES WILL BE LIGHTER THAN NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SE CARIBBEAN WHERE 15-20 KT WINDS REMAIN. AS SFC LOW PUSHES TOWARD SE COAST LATE IN THE WEEK ATLC RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD WWD AND ALLOW TRADES TO SPREAD FROM THE E INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC BY LATE WEEK. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... STORM WARNING...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT N OF 30N BETWEEN 75W AND 79W. GALE WARNING...TODAY THROUGH TUE NIGHT N OF 28N W OF 74W. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER COBB