000
AGXX40 KNHC 061851
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
220 PM EDT SUN MAY 06 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
STRONG RETURN FLOW W OF 93W AS GRADIENT BETWEEN ATLC HIGH PRES 
AND THERMAL LOW PRES OVER MEXICO TIGHTENS AS ANTICYCLONE IS 
SQUEEZED BY STRONG ATLC DEVELOPING LOW PRES AND DRIFTS OVER 
GULFSTREAM WATERS.  HIGH PRES WEAKENS AND RETROGRADES RELAXING 
GRADIENT IN 48 HRS ALLOWING WINDS TO SUBSIDE.  ON THE OTHER 
SIDE...NE GULF START GETTING STRONG NE WIND TONIGHT CROSSING 
FLORIDA FROM DEEP ATLC LOW PRES OVER GULFSTREAM LASTING THROUGH 
TUE WHEN DEEP LOW PRES SHIFT NW.

WHILE QUICK DROP IN WINDS MIGHT SEEM TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE... 
GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON THIS SOLUTION WITH ONLY NAM HOLDING NE 
WINDS THROUGH WED.  ALL OTHER MODELS SUBSIDE WINDS LATE TUE.  

SW N ATLC...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH N OF PUERTO RICO DRIFTS NE OUT OF AREA BY 
TUE WHILE VERY DEEP LOW PRES CENTER OFF CAPE HATTERAS TAKES 
CENTER STAGE.  WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS N OF 31N...DEEP LOW 
PRES WILL POSSIBLY HAVE STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS S OF 31N.  
FORECAST HEADLINES GALE WARNING N OF 28N W OF 74W STARTING LATE 
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH LATE TUE NIGHT.  THOUGHTS OF 
STORM WARNINGS HAVE CROSSED MY MIND MORE THAN ONCE AS 50 KT 
ISOTACH AT 925 MB ENCROACHES SLIGHTLY INTO OUR AREA...BUT MODELS 
HAVE KEPT GOOD HANDLE ON FEATURE SO FAR...SO WILL GIVE BENEFIT 
OF THE DOUBT.

CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC...
TYPICAL E TRADES REMAIN ACROSS WRN CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE WHEN 
ATLC RIDGE WEAKENS AND ALLOWS TRADES TO SUBSIDE. LITTLE CHANGE 
IN WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED WED THRU FRI.

WARNINGS...
ATLANTIC...
GALE WARNING...TONIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT...AMZ080.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER WALLY BARNES