000 AGXX40 KNHC 060721 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 320 AM EDT SUN MAY 06 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THE INTERACTION BETWEEN HIGH PRES ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO AND LOW PRES W OF THE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN SE WINDS OF 20-25 KT ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE WRN GULF THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 7 TO 9 FT. WINDS THEN SLOWLY BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATER ON MON INTO MON NIGHT OVER THE WRN GULF WITH SEAS SUBSIDING. MODELS INDICATE THAT A NEW AND STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRES BUILDS S FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE NRN GULF BEGINNING TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUE ENHANCING NE-E FLOW ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND ERN GULF WITH WINDS THERE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUE. THE HIGH THEN WEAKENS LATER ON TUE THROUGH THU ALLOWING FOR WINDS AND SEAS TO SUBSIDE ACROSS THE GULF. BY THU A WEAK HIGH CENTER SHOULD BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE MIDDLE GULF. 0000 UTC NWW3 GUIDANCE FROM LAST NIGHT LOOKS PRETTY GOOD WITH ONGOING WAVE HEIGHT OBSERVATIONS AS COMPARED TO ACTUAL BUOY AND SHIP REPORTS. SW N ATLC... A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVING E ABOUT 10-15 KT EXTENDS FROM ROUGHLY 25N65W SW TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SE BAHAMAS. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF GENERALLY WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGING THAT EXTENDS ALONG 30N. FOR THE PRESENT TIME...RELATIVELY LIGHT NE-E WINDS ARE NOTED BOTH BY SHIP/BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND ALSO SEEN ON A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM AROUND 2300 UTC LAST NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE ENE THROUGH MON NIGHT WITH SOME RESIDUAL FORM OF ITS STILL EXTEND INTO THE FAR SE WATERS BY EARLY TUE MORNING. SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE IN STORE FOR MAINLY THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA AS A RATHER STRONG BAROCLINIC LOW PRES SYSTEM DROPS SWD INTO THE FORECAST WATERS ON MON MORNING WITH AN ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH WELL S ACROSS THE WRN PORTION PAST FLORIDA REACHING FROM THE NRN BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA TUE. THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE COME IN MORE AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO FUTURE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL STRUCTURE OF THE LOW ONCE SYSTEM GETS UNDERWAY. LATEST MODEL RUNS OF THE GFS/NAM/EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN MODELS DEPICT THE LOW MOVING W NEAR 30N/31N LATER ON MON THROUGH TUE MORNING ...THEN MOVING LATER TUE REACHING THE COAST OF S CAROLINA EARLY ON WED. THE LATEST NOGAPS MODEL RUN IS STILL SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW AS IT BRINGS IT THE FURTHEST TO THE S OF ALL THE MODELS TO NW BAHAMAS BY THU MORNING. WILL DISCOUNT THAT SOLN AND GO WITH CONSENSUS. IN ANY EVENT...CAN EXPECT MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS TO BEGIN TONIGHT OVER THE NW PORTION IN ASSOCIATED WITH THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AND BECOME FURTHER ENHANCED BY THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE INTENSIFYING LOW MON LATER ON MON INTO TUE MORNING. WILL KEEP HEADLINE FOR EXPECTED GALE CONDITIONS OVER A PORTION OF THE NRN WATERS MON AND TUE...BUT AM THINKING OF STARTING THE GALE WINDS EARLIER ON MON THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. MAY HAVE TO POSSIBLY CONSIDER UPGRADING THE GALE WARNING TO A STORM FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUE PENDING FUTURE MODEL WIND GUIDANCE... AND PRES OF THE LOW IN ITS EARLY STAGES OF DEVELOPMENT. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE A PROBLEM FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE WAVEWATCH THREE INCLUDING THE WNA...AND ALSO THE FNMOC AND UKMET WAVE GUIDANCE AS WELL ALL INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL LARGE SWELLS TO BE GENERATED N OF 31N TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BY THIS SYSTEM THEN SPREAD S INTO THE FORECAST THROUGH WED. HEIGHTS MAXING OUT UP TO 32 FT N OF 31N ARE INDICATED BY THE GUIDANCE. WILL BUMP UP SEAS FROM WHAT IS IN THE CURRENT FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST WAVE GUIDANCE FIGURES...BUT NOT GO WITH THE MAXIMUM VALUE SEEN N OF 31N AS I THINK THE WAVE ENERGY FROM THE SWELL TRAIN WILL HAVE BEEN DISPERSED MAINLY TO THE N OF 31N BY THE TIME IT ARRIVES WELL INTO THE FORECAST WATERS TUE. GENERALLY LIGHT NW-N FLOW WILL BE PRESENT TO THE S OF THE FRONT W OF THE BAHAMAS...AND LIKEWISE LIGHT SLY FLOW WILL BE S OF THE FRONT E OF BAHAMAS MON THROUGH TUE. ON THU THE FLOW THEN BECOMES LIGHT SW-W N OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND W OF 75W...LIGHT NLY TO FLOW SW OF THE BAHAMAS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SE-S E OF 75W. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... TYPICAL ELY TRADES REMAIN ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH 15-20 KT WINDS FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 65W-77W. ELY WINDS OF 10-15 KT ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. E WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE SUPPRESSED TO S OF 12N ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC...AND ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD N TO ABOUT 14N TUE BEFORE WEAKENING TO 10-15 WED AND THU. LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS AND SEAS IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THROUGH THU. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE