000
AGXX40 KNHC 051649
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EDT SAT MAY 05 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRES RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF 
MEXICO AND LOW PRES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL ALLOW FOR SE 
WINDS TO INCREASE OVER THE WRN GULF TO 20-25 KT RANGE THROUGH 
SUN NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT. STRONGER HIGH PRES BUILDS 
S FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE NRN GULF SUN NIGHT AND 
THROUGH TUE INCREASING NE-E FLOW ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND ERN GULF. 
THE RIDGE WEAKENS LATE TUE WITH MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE 
AREA WED AND THU.

ATLC TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N65W TO HAITI. THE TROUGH WILL STALL 
OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND SUN THEN DISSIPATE 
MON. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A LOW ALONG A FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY N OF THE AREA. THE GFS BRINGS THE LOW TO 31N72W SUN 
NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THE NAM IS 
FURTHER TO THE W AND THE NOGAPS IS ALSO A LITTLE W OF THE GFS.
THE GFS AND NAM DRIFT THE LOW BACK TO THE NW TOWARD THE 
CAROLINAS WHILE THE NOGAPS BRINGS IT S TO FLORIDA. THE CURRENT 
FORECAST PACKAGE CALLS FOR GALE CONDITION POSSIBLE ON MON AND 
TUE. IF THE NAM IS CORRECT THESE CONDITIONS COULD LAST UNTIL 
WED...HOWEVER THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF AND BARELY HINTS OF A GALE 
LATE MON AND MON NIGHT. IF LATER MODEL RUNS CONTINUE THIS TREND 
MAY HAVE BACK OFF THE GALE. BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP CURRENT 
WORDING.

LIGHTER THEN NORMAL ELY TRADES REMAIN ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH 
THE ABSENCE OF ATLC RIDGE...WITH 15-20 KT WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN 
AND TROPICAL ATLC ZONES S OF AROUND 15N. LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS 
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

WARNINGS...

ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER DGS