000 AGXX40 KNHC 050744 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 330 AM EDT SAT MAY 05 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THE INTERACTION BETWEEN HIGH PRES ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO AND LOW PRES W OF THE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL ALLOW FOR SE WINDS TO INCREASE OVER THE WRN GULF TO THE 20-25 KT RANGE THROUGH SUN NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT. NEW AREA OF STRONGER HIGH PRES BUILDS S FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE NRN GULF BEGINNING SUN NIGHT AND THROUGH TUE ENHANCING NE-E FLOW ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND ERN GULF. THE WINDS HERE AND OVER THE WRN PART THEN DECREASE WED AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND THE LOW W OF THE AREA HAS LESS OF AN AFFECT ON THE PRES GRADIENT. NWW3 GUIDANCE FROM LAST NIGHT LOOKS PRETTY GOOD WITH ONGOING WAVE HEIGHT OBSERVATIONS. WILL USE CLOSELY FOR FORECAST GUIDANCE. SW N ATLC... THE 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ROUGHLY 31N68W SW TO THE SE BAHAMAS. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF GENERALLY WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGING THAT EXTENDS ALONG 30N. THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A LIGHT E-SE WIND REGIME OVER MUCH OF THE SW N ATLC. THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE ENE THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME FORM OF LOW PRES IS STILL EXPECTED TO FORM ON OR VERY NEAR THE TROUGH PERHAPS THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT ONCE THIS LOW FORMS THAT IT WILL LIFT NE OF THE AREA SUN WITH A WEAK TROUGH TRAILING SW INTO THE FAR SE WATERS. OF MORE NOTICEABLE AND SIGNIFICANCE IS YET ANOTHER LOW THE MODELS SHOW MOVING SWD INTO THE AREA SOMETIME EITHER SUN NIGHT OR MON...ALTHOUGH LATEST NAM MODEL RUN IS SLOWER WITH THIS TIMING INDICATING THAT IT MOVES S OF 31N MON NIGHT. THIS LOW APPEARS TO EVOLVE FROM A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS N OF THE AREA EXTENDING FROM N GEORGIA SE TO NEAR 31N70W AND NEWD FROM THERE. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP SWD INTO THE AREA AS A BACKDOOR FRONT BEGINNING SUN NIGHT...AND CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SWD TO WELL PAST FLORIDA REACHING FROM THE NE WATERS TO CENTRAL CUBA TUE. THIS FRONT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN WHAT APPEARS FOR NOW TO BE A COLD FRONT/OCCLUSION FRONTAL SYSTEM ONCE THE LOW BECOMES BETTER DEFINED. THE MORE RECENT VERSIONS OF THE GFS MODEL NOW SHOW SLOWER TIMING IN MOVEMENT OF LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER IT IS FURTHEST TO THE E IN THE LOCATION OF THE LOW. I DON NOT SEE THE LOW TRACKING FAR TO THE S AND W NEAR THE FLORIDA COAST AS ALL THE MODELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS AND CANADIAN SHOW. BOTH THE CANADIAN AND GFS ARE SIMILAR WITH RESPECT TO THE TRACK ALONG 29N/30N MON THROUGH WED EVEN THOUGH THE CANADIAN IS MORE TO THE W THAN THE GFS. IN ANY EVENT...CAN EXPECT MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS TO OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW MAINLY OVER THE NW PORTION BEGINNING SUN NIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY WED DEPENDING ON JUST HOW SOON THE LOW TRACKS BACK N AWAY FROM THE AREA. IT APPEARS THAT THE LOW WILL DIP INTO THE AREA MON THEN TRACK WWD ALONG 29N/30N THROUGH WED. MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER GALE CONDITIONS FOR SOME TIME EARLY NEXT WEEK PENDING ON UPDATED WIND GUIDANCE FROM FUTURE MODEL RUNS. GENERALLY LIGHT WLY FLOW WILL BE PRESENT TO THE S OF THE FRONT W OF THE BAHAMAS...AND LIKEWISE LIGHT SLY FLOW WILL BE S OF THE FRONT E OF BAHAMAS MON THROUGH WED. WINDS ELSEWHERE N OF THE ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE NE WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT OVER THE NRN PORTION...AND TO N-NE 20-25 KT BY MON MORNING AS FAR S AS THE NRN BAHAMAS...THEN DECREASING TO 15-20 KT MON NIGHT N OF 26N...EXCEPT OVER THE NE PORTION WHERE WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONGER (NLY 20-25 KT AND S-SW 20-25 KT) OVER THE E AND SE QUADRANTS OF THE LOW...ALTHOUGH THESE WINDS SHOULD BE PRIMARILY N AND E OF 65W TUE. NWW3 GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SEAS BUILD TO 12 FT MON AND AND EARLY TUE OVER THE NW PART UNDER STRONG CYCLONIC CIRCULATION DUE TO THE LOW. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THESE SEA HEIGHTS ARE UNDONE BY ABOUT 2 FT FEET. WILL CONSIDER THIS POSSIBILITY FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... TYPICAL ELY TRADES REMAIN ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH 15-20 KT WINDS S OF 18N BETWEEN 66W-79W. ELY WINDS OF 10-15 KT ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. E WINDS OF 15-20 KT ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 13N ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING TO 10-15 KT THROUGH SUN NIGHT...THEN INCREASING AGAIN TO 15-20 KT S OF 16N MON THROUGH WED. LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE